The rate of growth in demand of less than 1 million barrels per for these years 2024/2025 “marks a significant slowdown compared to the increase of 2 mb/d in 2023” according to the International Energy Agency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revises slightly upwards its forecasts for an increase in oil demand in 2024, while warning that the trend is towards a “significant slowdown” in the growth of black gold consumption , which could experience an excess supply in 2025, according to its monthly report published Thursday.
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 920,000 barrels per day this year, to 102.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day from the previous estimate. October, indicates the OECD Energy Agency.
This adjustment is explained “largely by larger-than-expected deliveries of OECD diesel in the third quarter”, according to the IEA.
For 2025, the estimate for growth in black gold consumption is “essentially unchanged” at less than one million barrels per day (990,000), which would bring global daily consumption to 103.8 million barrels. The rate of growth in demand of less than 1 mb/d for these years 2024/2025 “marks a significant slowdown compared to the increase of 2 mb/d in 2023”, specified the IEA.
OPEC+ postpones planned increase in production
The forecast level of black gold consumption “again reflects sub-normal underlying global economic conditions”, the end of post-Covid-19 demand catch-up while “the rapid deployment” of electric vehicles” also moderates the growth in oil consumption,” the IEA explained.
The oil market is on a downward trend due to the slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, weighed down by sluggish consumption. Oil prices remain at relatively low levels. Around 06:30 GMT, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea fell 0.61%, to $71.84.
In this bearish context, the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers decided on November 3 to postpone by one month a planned increase in production, which would not occur before January. It will hold its meeting on December 1 to examine the market outlook and its production plans for 2025. But according to IEA estimates, even if the production cuts established by OPEC+ to support prices, remained in effect. Instead, “global supply will exceed demand by more than a million barrels per day next year.”
“The global supply of oil is increasing at a sustained pace,” said the IEA, referring to the re-election of Donald Trump, who favors oil expansion.
“Following the American elections”, the IEA therefore expects the United States to be the main contributor to the increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries estimated at 1.5 mb /d in 2024/25.
