what the HuffPost compiler reveals ten days before the elections

ELECTIONS – The tripartite is clear. Less than two weeks after the European elections which saw a very large success for the National Rally, the lightning campaign for the early legislative elections saw the emergence of three camps fighting for the majority in the Assembly. Illustration in the polls which are multiplying now that the electoral offer is clear.

Unlike those carried out until now, the Ifop surveys (for LCI, Le FigaroSud Radio) and Harris (for M6, Challenges and RTL) published this Thursday, June 20 relate to the actual candidacies in each constituency. If the voting method remains complex for pollsters (these legislative elections are sometimes considered as 577 mini-presidential elections) and if this photograph of opinion still has no predictive value, it is still more refined.

The RN twice as high as in 2022

It therefore emerges, as shown in the HuffPost poll compiler visible below, an advantage to the far right which is in the lead as during the European campaign. The party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen (and its close allies of Eric Ciotti) is credited with 34.1% of voting intentions in the first round, which allows him to consider a much larger number of candidates for the second round than the 208 in 2022 when he reached 18.7% nationally.

Behind, the union of the left united in the New Popular Front manages to create a dynamic behind its candidates. HAS 27%, the NFP is certainly below the total of the left-wing lists in the European elections (31.6%) but it is above the NUPES score in 2022 (25.7%). Above all, it distances the candidates from the presidential majority. This barely reaches 20% (19.8%), far from the 25.6% two years ago. Fourths (at 6.6%), the Republicans seem to be condemned to playing a role of extra.

The number of qualifiers and the configurations of the second rounds on July 7 will also depend on the level of participation on Sunday June 30. If no candidate obtains 50%, the first two are qualified as well as those who obtain more than 12.5% ​​of those registered. With 60% participation, the third must obtain at least 20.8% of the votes to qualify.

The presidential majority of less than 100 deputies?

Therefore, imagining what the National Assembly will look like after this dissolution is a perilous exercise. The Harris investigation still tries to do so on the basis of “these measures, as well as the analysis of the balance of power between the different political groups and alliances”. The result is a projection without any camp with an absolute majority of 289 seats.

The range most favorable to the Ciotti-Bardella alliance puts it at 280 seats. The average score is 255 deputies (three times more than in 2022) when the New Popular Front is at 150, i.e. as many as in the outgoing Assembly. It is the Republicans (40 seats, or 20 fewer) and especially the presidential majority (115 seats, or 130 fewer) who seem to be paying the price for this election desired by Emmanuel Macron.

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