Trudeau’s leadership: “It’s too late to change leaders”

In Justin Trudeau’s entourage, there is no doubt about the outcome: the Prime Minister will be in the fight against Pierre Poilievre in 2025. He wants to defend his vision of the country. He feels like his legacy is under threat. His family difficulties made him doubt last year, but he decided to stay.

I realized it’s not me [de quitter]. There is still so much to dohe declared recently, in an interview on the podcast ReThinking.

The polls may not be great – the Liberals are struggling to overcome the 15-20 point gap that separates them from the Conservatives – those close to the Prime Minister like to point out that their leader is used to being underestimated and that ‘he performs well in these circumstances.

But in the corridors of Parliament, members of his political family are worried.

Several MPs from the greater Toronto area are afraid of losing their seatsconfides an Ontario elected official who requested anonymity to be able to speak more freely.

Some MPs even seem to have already thrown in the towel. They find it hard to believe that Mr. Trudeau is capable of turning the tide against the Conservatives and believe that a change of leadership is necessary. We would be better off changing leaders for the good of our countryconfides a Liberal MP, who adds that he has a lot of respect for Mr. Trudeau and what he has accomplished, but who fears that his unpopularity will be a burden against Pierre Poilievre, a leader he says he has fear.

According to him, weariness with the Liberal leader has reached a point of no return:

Tomorrow morning, if we saw Justin Trudeau jump into a river to save two children being chased by a crocodile, we would say that it was his fault.

Unfortunately, the Prime Minister has become, in his opinion, too toxic for the electorate: If he doesn’t leave on his own, I’ll be disappointed.

Another elected official, who says undecided facing the future of Mr. Trudeau, compares the current atmosphere to that which reigned towards the end of Kathleen Wynne’s mandate in Ontario, before her crushing defeat against Doug Ford in 2018: No matter what Ms. Wynne said, it didn’t add up.

In total, Radio-Canada spoke with more than 25 Liberal MPs in recent weeks, from different corners of the country. The majority of them say that Justin Trudeau must stay, that he remains an excellent candidate in the electoral campaign, while Pierre Poilièvre has not yet been tested: campaigner that I’ve seen in my life”,”text”:”Justin Trudeau, he’s the best campaigner I’ve seen in my life”}}”>Justin Trudeau is the best campaigner that I have seen in my lifedeclared Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada on Wednesday. I am convinced that he will go see Canadians and convince them to trust us.

Justin Trudeau is our leader. He was the one who was there to get through the difficult times with all Canadians in recent years.

But six MPs with whom Radio-Canada spoke believe that it is time for Mr. Trudeau to bow out, even if it means taking the risk of going on the campaign trail with a brand new leader.

In the caucus, there are the energetic and the resignedsummarizes a deputy.

Finally, five elected officials we spoke to are simply undecided: they are navigating between the advantages and disadvantages of having Justin Trudeau at the helm for a fourth election.

This is the case of Alexandra Mendès, who represents the constituency of Brossard-Saint-Lambert. According to her, Mr. Trudeau is a good boss with lots of experiencethere is no emerging figure to replace him, but at the same time, she notes the weariness of the public: At the doors, it is often the question of the boss that comes up. […] I bring back everything that has been successful since 2015. […] but we must not deny it either. The chef, it’s true that it’s not famous. […] Some people think we should change.

Even those who think Justin Trudeau should stay expect a tough battle in 2025: The election risks being even more difficult than in 2021 for the Liberalsconfides Marc Serré, MP for Nickel Belt, in northern Ontario. Trudeau’s message is not getting across as well as before. The team needs to take a more active role.

Will a new captain is required? Marc Serré responds without hesitation: It’s too late to change leaders.

The Toronto-St. Paul’s test

Too late or not, the Liberals will have their eyes on the Toronto-St. Paul’s, Monday evening.

The riding, in the heart of Toronto, was left vacant by the departure of former minister Carolyn Bennett. The county is considered a liberal stronghold, but the race now appears tight with the conservatives.

If Justin Trudeau loses Toronto-St. Paul’s, I don’t see how he can remain leadersays a senior Liberal MP. It would hurt a lotdeclares a fellow minister.

To avoid a symbolic defeat, the Liberals pulled out all the stops, sending nearly twenty ministers to campaign alongside their candidate, Leslie Church, who was until recently Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff. Pierre Poilievre’s troops also chose a candidate little known to the public to represent them, the conservative Don Stewart.

For now, the Liberals remain favorites, but not with a 15-20 point lead like before, notes, on the line, David Coletto, director of the survey firm, Abacus Data. According to him, even a narrow Liberal victory could raise questions about Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

Not all by-elections are important, but this one isadds Mr. Coletto. I suspect that many Liberal MPs will be watching very closely what will happen on Monday evening. That could tell them if the Prime Minister is capable of standing up to the Conservatives.

The absence of a dolphin

What, however, makes the situation difficult for worried Liberals and what leads one to believe that Justin Trudeau is here to stay, is the lack of a clear alternative to replace him.

If there was a dolphin, this would have been resolved a long time ago.

Yes, a few names are circulating behind the scenes, but we are far from a Paul Martin who everyone saw as the worthy successor to Jean Chrétien in 2003.

A name resurfaces regularly, that of Mark Carney. The former governor of the Bank of Canada has increased his partisan activities in recent weeks — he was, for example, the special guest of MP Anna Gainey in Westmount for a fundraising evening in May and, a few weeks later, of the Ontario Liberal leader, Bonnie Crombie — in addition to the speeches he gave this spring in Toronto and Ottawa, in both official languages.

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He is interested in servingnotes former minister David Lametti, a friend of Mark Carney for around thirty years, who believes that the former banker could make a remarkable contribution as leadereven if he emphasizes that his good words are not a call for Justin Trudeau to resign.

Several sources also tell us that the Prime Minister’s office, the Liberal Party and Mark Carney have had discussions about a possible gateway to obtain a seat. However, the former governor of the Bank of Canada has still not stopped thinking.

According to our information, Mr. Carney receives advice from Gerald Butts, former right-hand man of Justin Trudeau, and from Tom Pitfield, of the Canada2020 group, who remains very close to the Prime Minister.

Other names of potential successors are often mentioned in Liberal circles: Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand, Sean Fraser.

Rumors concerning the interest of Dominic LeBlanc, a long-time friend of the Prime Minister, were also rumored in an article in the Globe and Mail, earlier this year.

After the publication of the text, some MPs reportedly approached the Atlantic Minister to express their support.

No-woke who could give Pierre Poilievre a hard time”,”text”:”Dominic LeBlanc is the only non-woke candidate who could give Pierre Poilievre a hard time”}}”>Dominic LeBlanc is the only candidate No-woke who could give Pierre Poilievre a hard timesays a Liberal MP from Ontario, on condition of anonymity.

But none of these ministers mentioned above nor even Mark Carney have shown, so far, that they intend to push Justin Trudeau out. The consensus also seems quite clear in the Liberal ranks: if the Prime Minister leaves, it will be his decision.

An approach that former conservative strategist Yan Plante also welcomes: When you win three elections with a party, you earn the right to decide when to leave.

He points out that Stephen Harper, whom he advised, had to face the same kind of questions as Justin Trudeau before the 2015 election: Harper realized he was the best candidate for the party, even if not to win, at least to save the furniture. That’s why he stayed.”,”text”:”In the end, Mr. Harper realized that he was the best candidate for the party, even if not to win, at least to save the furniture. That’s why he stayed.”}}”>In the end, Mr. Harper realized that he was the best candidate for the party, even if not to win, at least to save the furniture. That’s why he stayed.

Summer, according to many Liberals, undoubtedly represents the last exit for Justin Trudeau before the next election.