Gold (XAU/USD) stabilizes its price around 2 600 $ after hitting seven-week lows in November. This respite is explained by key technical support, while the markets await the latest US inflation figures.
Inflation and interest rates: a delicate balance
Expectations of high interest rates in the United States weighed on gold this month. While inflation remains a threat, the imminent release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could shake up forecasts. A rate cut would make gold more attractive, but current odds point to a cautious decision at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Also read: The Trump effect pushes gold prices down further
The return of Donald Trump to the White House complicates the outlook. His protectionist policies could reignite inflation, thus keeping rates high, bad news for the yellow metal.
The ETF funds in question
The recent fall in the price can also be explained by significant capital outflows from ETF d’or. These instruments, popular for investing in the metal without physically owning bullion, have seen net outflows of $809 million in November, according to World Gold Council.
Demand in China, the world's largest consumer, is also weakening under pressure from a slowing economy and new tariffs imposed by the United States.
Bitcoin, Stocks and Asset Rivalry
Gold faces increasing competition, particularly from the Bitcoin (BTC)whose price is close to historic highs. American stocks, boosted by expectations of tax cuts and relaxed regulations, are also attracting investors.
However, geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine or rising tensions in the Middle East, continue to support demand for safe-haven assets.
Technical analysis: a pivot point on the trend
From a technical perspective, gold is paused at a major trendline. If the support around the 2 600 $ gives way, a fall towards 2 540 $corresponding to the 100-day moving average, is considered. However, the underlying trend remains upward, leaving the door open for a recovery.
FAQ: Understanding the mechanisms of the Federal Reserve
What is the role of the Fed and its impact on the US dollar?
The Fed adjusts interest rates to stabilize prices and promote employment. Rising rates strengthen the dollar, while falling rates weaken it.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE)?
During crises, the Fed injects liquidity through massive bond purchases. This process tends to weaken the dollar.
Et le Quantitative Tightening (QT) ?
Conversely, QT reduces liquidity by ceasing these purchases, thereby strengthening the value of the dollar.
The evolution of the price of gold depends on multiple economic and geopolitical factors, making this raw material essential in the world of investments.
