How did the grain market react to Trump’s re-election?

The grain market experiences significant fluctuations. THE price of soft wheat are increasing, while those of durum wheat remain stable in the face of international competition. Barley is progressing, and corn is recording an increase in prices despite improved harvests.

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Rise in soft wheat prices

THE price of soft wheat on Euronext and the French physical market gained ground between November 4 and 11, while the wheat contract on the CBOT declined. The fall of the euro against the US dollar following the election of Donald Trump as US president has provided some support to the outlook for European exports. Indeed, the euro zone could, like China, be affected by possible protectionist measures after coming to power on 1^is January 2025. In France, sowing of soft winter wheat increased during the week ending November 4, going from 41% to 62% (compared to 65% in 2023 at the same time), according to Céré’Obs.

But stability of durum wheat prices

THE price of durum wheat on the French physical market stabilized between November 4 and 11, due to international competition. Prices from Italy are falling, knowing that the Canadian origin, of very good quality, will arrive soon. In France, sowing of durum wheat began during the week ending November 4, increasing from 4% to 10% (compared to 14% in 2023 at the same time), according to Céré’Obs.

Increase in feed barley prices

THE price of feed barley on the French physical market continued to climb between November 4 and 11. Business has materialized in the port. However, the market remains generally calm, especially on the domestic market. In France, winter barley sowings increased during the week ending November 4, going from 62% to 78% (compared to 80% in 2023 at the same time), according to Céré’Obs.

Donald Trump raises corn prices

THE corn price on Euronext and on the French physical market climbed between November 4 and 11, while the corn contract on the CBOT has progressed. International demand largely came from the United States, before the election of Donald Trump. In Europe, with the harvest falling behind schedule, buyers, particularly Belgian-Dutch ones, have to cover their supplies in November-December. However, the good yield results mean that demand is not pressing. According to Céré’Obs, corn growing conditions stabilized during the week ending November 4, at 76% (compared to 82% in 2023 at the same time). Harvests are progressing, going from 38% to 58% (compared to 93% in 2023).

Few changes in USDA Wasde report

The new Wasde monthly report on global agricultural supply and demand from the USDA was released Friday, November 8. No big changes in this publication compared to that of October. What to remember: in wheat, world production revised in a very small increase (with in particular declines seen in Argentina, the EU and Russia) while the world levels of imports, exports and final stocks are seen in small decline; domestic uses are increasing. In corn, the notable event, although expected, comes on the one hand from the downward revision of world production, by almost 2 Mt, and on the other hand from an increase in domestic uses (+ 6.2 Mt) in the world. For its part, the drop in global production, particularly through that originating in the United States, left its mark. The US production yield increased from 53.1 bushel/acre to 51.7 bushel/acre.