On October 29 and 30, 2024, violent storms hit the west coast of Spain. Floods generated by excess precipitation devastated part of the Valencia region, causing the death of 223 residents. Could such a catastrophe occur in Normandy?
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“It shocked everyone!“Hubert Dejean de la Batie, mayor of Sainte-Adresse and regional councilor of Normandy has just returned from Valencia, Spain. He was able to observe the terrible consequences of the catastrophic floods of October 29 and 30, which at the last toll left 223 dead and many missing.They are used to these cold drop phenomena, but it was the scale that caused the problem, and then we can say that there were some malfunctions“.
Is such a scenario possible in Normandy? “The answer comes at different levelsexplains Olivier Cantat, climate expert, member of the Norman IPCC. “When we talk about Spain and Valencia, it's a Mediterranean area so what happened there is quite recurrent. It is found elsewhere in the Mediterranean basin“And the specialist cites in particular the similarities with the deadly floods.”from Nîmes in 1988 or from Vaison-la-Romaine in 1992“.
In Normandy, we are in another context, both climatic and geographical, which cannot impose a phenomenon of such a large scale and geographical dimension since we do not have the same ingredients in some way. We do not have a mass of hot water, we do not have a cold drop positioned above and a blockage by the relief which can cause this type of phenomenon.
Olivier Cantat, teacher-researcher in geography-climatologist, member of the Norman IPCC
In Spain, the equivalent of a year's worth of rain fell in just eight hours, precipitation of exceptional magnitude, incomparable with the strong stormy episodes which fall from time to time in Normandy.
For comparison, “during the recent floods that there were for example in Saint-Pierre-en-Auge in May, we had the equivalent of a month of rain in just a few hours”explains Nicolas Buffard, Météo France representative in Normandy.
If he concedes that meteorology, you should never say never”, he believes like his colleague that a Valencian scenario is “quite unimaginable in the region”. On the one hand, given the difference in climate, and on the other hand, taking into account the sophistication of the French warning and prevention system.
In Spain, there is a questioning of alert services. In France, since the storms of 1999, Météo France and the State have implemented meteorological vigilance to compensate for the lack of information among the general public and the media.
“It’s a well-established system.assures Nicolas Buffard, who puts forward the textbook case that was storm Ciaran, almost a year ago to the day. It was planned a week before, the Manche department was warned well in advance and placed on red alert.“.
One year after storm Ciaran, the Saint-Patrice-de-Claids municipal forest is still in the process of reconstruction.
TO RE-READ. Storm Ciaran: One dead, 3 injured, floods and up to 225,000 homes without electricity in Normandy
Even though the forests are struggling to recover, and some communities have been deprived of electricity, telephone or water for a long time, the depression caused the death of only one man. A much lighter toll than the 223 Valencian victims.
