(Montel) Wholesale electricity prices for next-day delivery in France are expected to continue rising this week and surpass the 11-month peak reached for Wednesday, due to forecasts of colder weather, an LSEG analyst said in Montel on Tuesday.
The daily price of electricity for delivery on Wednesday reached EUR 123.42/MWh, its highest level since December 6, due to falling temperatures and lower wind production, according to stock exchange data Epex Spot.
But the daily French spot price could reach EUR 130/MWh on Thursday and Friday, estimates Gabriele Martinelli, head of European electricity research at the London bank LSEG, which would be the highest price since December 1. .
This points to an “upward risk” linked to forecasts of “even lower” wind production on Thursday and temperatures below normal until Saturday, noting that the average temperature in France should be 7.2°C tomorrow , compared to 8.6°C today.
Average wind generation is expected to fall by 3.7 GW to 6.6 GW on Wednesday, according to the analyst. Residual demand, that is to say the share of demand not covered by wind and solar power, should be 8 GW higher than today.
Nuclear on the rise?
French temperatures are expected to be on average 1.1°C lower than the seasonal norm until the end of the week, according to data from Montel Analytics.
On the other hand, Robert Jackson-Stroud, European electricity market analyst at the analysis firm Icis, estimates that the French spot price for delivery tomorrow will be the maximum level for the next two weeks.
He anticipates average prices this week of EUR 113.88/MWh and a maximum of EUR 125.42/MWh. Next week he forecasts average prices of EUR 106.90/MWh and a maximum of EUR 113.06/MWh.
“Wind generation will return, nuclear availability will be higher and we should experience a few days of lower demand,” he explains.
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