Qatar’s announcement of the suspension of its mediation between Israel and Hamas dashed hopes of a truce agreement in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages held in the Palestinian territory.
The wealthy Gulf state, which is home to Hamas’ political office and a major US base, has played a key role in the indirect negotiations carried out since the unprecedented attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement in Israel on October 7, 2023.
These talks, carried out with two other mediating countries – the United States and Egypt – aim to obtain the release of hostages held in Gaza and to put an end to a war which has left more than 43,600 dead in the Palestinian territory.
On Saturday, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Doha had suspended its mediation until the belligerents showed “seriousness” in the discussions.
Where are the negotiations?
Since a week-long pause in fighting late last year, coupled with the release of dozens of hostages, discussions have been at an impasse.
In early November, Hamas rejected a short-term truce proposal, demanding a lasting ceasefire.
Israel, for its part, has promised to continue the war until it achieves its goal of annihilating Hamas and returning the hostages home.
While Egypt borders the Gaza Strip and the United States is Israel’s main supporter, Qatar was the only country to present itself as a neutral actor. He has already played mediator in other international conflicts, notably in Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan.
Negotiations on Gaza need an intermediary and “I don’t see how it could be anyone else,” says Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.
The talks are, however, at a stage “where there is no longer a negotiation process”, he explains.
Hamas was “weakened” by the assassinations of its leaders, Yahya Sinouar in October and Ismaïl Haniyeh in July, continues this Middle East specialist, emphasizing the difficulty of “maintaining a negotiation process after the death of the main interlocutors” .
According to Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group think tank, the Palestinian movement “believes that it has already accepted a US ceasefire plan over the summer.” But this proposal never led to an agreement.
Hamas considers that the Israelis “sabotage the negotiations by constantly adding new conditions”, notably the maintenance of a military presence in Gaza, says the analyst.
Could Hamas leave Doha?
The Qatari Foreign Ministry on Saturday rejected claims that Doha could close the Hamas office in the country.
“The main objective of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication between the parties concerned, and this channel has contributed to obtaining a ceasefire” previously, said its spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari.
A senior Hamas official told AFP that the movement had not received any requests to leave Qatar. A diplomatic source previously told AFP that with Qatar’s withdrawal from its role as mediator, the Hamas office “did not[vait] no more reason to exist.”
Given the denials from Qatar and those responsible for the movement, “it is unlikely that there will be a major public closure of the Hamas office, and an expulsion of its leaders”, estimates Anna Jacobs.
In April, Qatar had already expressed its dissatisfaction to Hamas, encouraging its members to turn to Turkey, before returning two weeks later at the request of the United States and Israel.
Can Qatar withdraw permanently?
Hamas today seems to be in “limbo”, under pressure which could increase in the coming weeks and probably push it to settle in Iran, says Andreas Krieg.
Turkey has been touted as a potential host, but the NATO member country is unlikely to want to antagonize the United States, he adds.
For Anna Jacobs, the movement’s leaders could stay out of Qatar “until more serious negotiations resume.”
Qatar said in April it was reassessing its role as mediator after being the subject of criticism, notably from Israeli and American politicians.
Doha has signaled its willingness to resume its efforts when conditions permit, but it wants to show that it is “ready to use everything [son] weight and all [son] influence on Hamas,” says Mr. Krieg.
