Wheat is one of the most strategic agricultural commodities in world trade. This cereal, a pillar of the diet of many populations, represents a major lever of influence in international relations. The main exporting countries – United States, Russia, European Union, Canada, Ukraine – dominate this market estimated at more than 200 million tonnes per year, where diplomatic and economic issues are closely intertwined with the food security imperatives of importing nations.
The Russian breakthrough shakes up the Algerian chessboard
The Russia has made spectacular progress on the Algerian wheat market, traditionally dominated by France. The numbers speak for themselves: the country of the Tsars exported 2.3 million tonnes to Algeria in 2023/2024, capturing more than a quarter of total imports. This increase in power has accelerated since the modification of the technical criteria by theAlgerian Interprofessional Cereals Office (OAIC) in October 2020, in particular concerning the rate of pinned grains now set at 0.5%. Forecasts for 2024/2025 reinforce this trend, with Russian imports projected to reach 3 million tonnes.
A competitiveness challenge for France
The Franceformerly a privileged partner of Algeria in the cereal sector, is struggling to maintain its position. The exclusion of French exporters from a recent call for tenders l’OAIC highlighted this weakening. If some see this as a consequence of diplomatic tensions around Western Sahara, experts mainly point to a problem of competitiveness. François Luguenotagricultural market analyst, emphasizes that the issue goes beyond simple political considerations: faced with the aggressive prices offered by Black Sea competitors, French wheat is struggling to compete.
Algeria between dependence and diversification
Algeriawith an annual consumption of 11 million tonnes of wheat for local production of only 3 million tonnes, remains highly dependent on imports. The country spends more than 1.5 billion dollars for its wheat purchases. This situation pushes the Algerian authorities to diversify their sources of supply, now favoring suppliers offering the best economic conditions. The Russiathanks to its competitive pricing policy, benefits from this strategy to the detriment of French exporters, who see their historical influence gradually eroded on this crucial Maghreb market.
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