the essential
A few days after the election of Donald Trump, Guillaume Ancel, former officer and writer, author of “Saint-Cyr at the Grande Muette school”analyzes the situation of the war in Ukraine and the direction that the conflict can take with the replacement of Joe Biden at the head of the United States.
Can we speak of a leap into the unknown regarding the war in Ukraine after the election of Donald Trump?
If Kamala Harris had been elected – as I hoped – her uncertain positioning would have posed a problem. Because she has not, or almost not, spoken out on the subject. What we see so far is that Joe Biden helped the kyiv army to resist without giving it the means to defeat Russia.
Many observers questioned the real intentions of Biden, whose fear of a direct confrontation with Putin is well known. Kamala Harris would not necessarily have invested in Ukraine in order to find a solution to the conflict. We went from an indecisive administration to a new president who was completely out of control.
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How do you judge Donald Trump's position?
What we are sure of is that he has every intention of putting an end to this war and he has probably already discussed it with Putin. For Donald Trump, this conflict is “bad business” and he wants the United States to no longer be involved in it for much longer.
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What could he do?
Therein lies the uncertainty… Will he impose a capitulation on Ukraine? Or will he tell Putin 'if you don't negotiate the terms I have chosen, then I will invest massively to defeat you'? Personally, I am not convinced by this second option. I fear that the first solution will be adopted, under the pretext of an American guarantee, and that Putin will recover everything he conquered, i.e. around 20% of Ukrainian territory. It is important for the Russian president to obtain an agreement because his army is exhausted by this war and he does not have the means to conquer Ukraine.
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In recent days, some Ukrainians were happy with Trump's election under the pretext that things could change, positively or not. Is this understandable?
The Ukrainians, like us, have understood that it is not them who will change Trump's attitude and that they will be forced to live with it for 4 years. Beyond lamenting or regretting this choice by the Americans, the question arises: what do we do with this? Today, if the United States withdraws its military support, the Europeans are unable to take over. The fact that Trump came to power puts us in a very delicate situation from which we can only be certain: he will do nothing in our interests.
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Trump's plan to stop the war was partly revealed by the American press: freezing the conflict, buffer zone, deployment of international military forces… Can we believe it?
It’s possible yes! Personally, I think he has already spoken with Putin. Now elected, he will speak with his advisors and review his copy. But he's already thought about something. I repeat, for him this war is a “bad business” and he wants to put an end to it. The question is by what means. And he is not going to favor Ukrainian and European interests. I think he will especially try to show that he respects Putin because he does not intend to wage war against him.
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Freezing the borders would lead to a certain victory for Russia and therefore for its Chinese ally, enemy of Donald Trump. Could this play a role in the potential end of this conflict?
Yes and no. When we look closely, China has never been concretely involved in Ukraine, unlike North Korea or Iran. For me, China took a step back and showed that if the great powers weakened in this war it was to its benefit.
The fact that Donald Trump wants to stop it is also a way of saying that he is keeping all his military resources to use them when he wants and needs them. And Ukraine doesn't need it. For me, the situation we find ourselves in means that we can no longer count on American power to protect us because Trump is too uncertain.
