War in Ukraine, the Middle East, customs duties… What to expect between Donald Trump and the Europeans?

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian president, is the “best salesman in the country”, leaving with tens of billions of dollars “every time he goes to the United States”. A position that many have interpreted as a threat of disengagement, correlated with a solution to end the crisis more favorable to Russia.

“On the Defense aspect, the Europeans may be concerned, but nothing is being done. What Donald Trump and JD Vance announced during their campaign is, for the moment, not something concretely implemented “It only remains declaratory,” says Maud Quessard, research director at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (IRSEM).

Counting in particular Viktor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister, among his supporters, Donald Trump, who has regularly pointed out that the United States' contribution to NATO is too costly, could impose certain of his conditions on the Europeans. Among them, revising their defense budgets upwards, if they wish to hope for the guarantee of American protection in the event of an attack by Russia. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, his position is much clearer, in favor of Israel. In addition to having, for example, worked for the Abraham Accords during his first mandate, he maintains good interpersonal relations with Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of the Hebrew state.

Increase in customs duties

“On the commercial level, there is one constant over the last two mandates of Trump and then Biden: that of the promotion of American protectionism, which is not a very good sign for Europeans,” says Maud Quessard. Among the measures illustrating the nationalism claimed by the billionaire, the

increase in customs duties, which he intends to raise to at least 10% on all imports.

“The implementation of these customs duties would have an impact on exports from countries like France,” adds Ludivine Gilli, director of the North American Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Beyond affecting certain key sectors, such as the automobile industry, the mechanism could serve Donald Trump's deterrence strategy, in the event of commercial disagreements with other partners. Emmanuel Macron has already been able to experience it, as the 78-year-old man had fun recalling during a meeting last January, threatening to increase customs duties by 100% on all wines and champagnes shipped in the United States.

We no longer have to worry about financial and commercial issues, which are in the hands of the executive, but about Defense, where other actors like Congress and the Pentagon come into play,” assures Maud Quessard, the research director, recalls, however, that the Trump administration will not be “a total surprise” for Europeans, who know his political line and have been able to prepare for it, although certain points, such as his climate-skeptical conviction, continue to maintain the fear.