Vladimir Putin has not yet officially congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the American presidential election, and for some Russia specialists, the Kremlin should remain cautious, avoiding placing too high hopes in the new master of the White House.
Donald Trump is the candidate with whom the Kremlin wants and can come to an agreement, Russian political scientist and director of the Center for Political and Geographic Studies Nikolai Petrov believes for Euractiv. According to him, Washington and Moscow will try to speak, but we should not expect serious developments in the relations between the two capitals.
“For the next four years, the White House will have a master who does not want to get involved in the war in Ukraine, as was the case with Joe Biden and as could have happened with Kamala Harris,” underlines Nikolai Petrov again.
According to the political scientist, the Kremlin believes that it is easier to negotiate with Donald Trump because the latter cares more about business than values, and above all “ what he can get in return. However, it is not yet certain that Vladimir Putin has anything to offer him, nor any influence on the future American president.
Political analyst Alexander Morozov underlines for Euractiv that the Kremlin will continue to develop its friendship with China and India and will give the impression of expanding its military cooperation with Iran. “This is all unpleasant for the United States. And this is not a way to put pressure on Donald Trump”he explains.
For Alexander Morozov, a phone call from Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin is therefore improbable. “For such a conversation, Donald Trump must have proposals for resolving the situation in Ukraine, and he does not have any,” he believes.
Regardless, experts say Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have too divergent interests to agree on anything in the long term.
“The Kremlin does not need part of Ukraine, nor a freezing of the conflict. He needs a demonstrative defeat of the West. But Donald Trump does not want to start his presidency with humiliation. I think he doesn't want to relive Joe Biden's situation, with the departure of American troops from Afghanistan. Therefore, what the Kremlin needs, Donald Trump absolutely cannot afford,” continue Nikolai Petrov.
Support for Ukraine will continue, but on a smaller scale
Alexander Morozov believes that Donald Trump will not completely cut off US support for Ukraine. But he will put pressure on his European partners, believing that this war is Europe's responsibility. It is therefore up to them, and not the United States, to become more involved in the defense of Ukraine.
“We must not panic at the idea that [Donald Trump] compromise with the Kremlin and, as some publicists like to say, abandon Ukraine. No, in my opinion this will not happen. What will happen, we will only know in March, when the composition of the new administration will be revealed,” added Alexander Morozov.
Nikolai Petrov is more pessimistic. According to the latter, the future American president should significantly reduce the amount of American aid to Ukraine and the fate of the weapons may not be favorable to kyiv.
“Europe is simply not able to compensate for the support that the United States has given to Ukraine. We must also take into account that support for Ukraine among the European population is declining. Everything comes together for a victory for the Kremlin,” concludes the political scientist.
