Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election in the United States sparks “a real worry” for Ukraine, reacts this Thursday on franceinfo, Camille Grand, researcher, specialist in defense issues at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR) and former deputy secretary general of NATO.
He recalls that the Republican Party, that of Donald Trump, “did not stand out for his support for Ukraine” in particular by blocking aid to Ukraine for several months. Nevertheless, “US military assistance remains extremely important. $60 billion has been given to Ukraine since the start of the conflict, more than half of the military assistance”, underlines Camille Grand.
The issue now is whether and to what extent the United States will continue to support Ukraine. In recent months, Donald Trump has continued to insist that he is capable of imposing peace in Ukraine. “in less than 24 hours”without ever explaining how. Camille Grand believes that resolving the conflict within this time frame is “in reality to give in to the demands of Vladimir Putin”. The 78-year-old tycoon “was heavily involved during the campaign on this idea of a peace negotiated very quickly, of a compromise which would be imposed in some way on the Ukrainians, but also on the Europeans”, adds the researcher.
However, uncertainty reigns. Although he promises to end the war in Ukraine, Donald Trump remains vague on the issue. Camille Grand does not underestimate her unpredictable nature either. “The reality of things is that we don't really know how he's going to play this proposed 'deal' [accord] to use his words. The 47th President of the United States will also be able to be firm against his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This specialist does not exclude this hypothesis.
Therefore, “Europeans really need to send very clear messages about their expectations, particularly regarding the Ukrainian conflict,” believes Camille Grand. Donald Trump will take office on January 20, after being sworn in. “The transition period is still a little chaotic in the United States: the old administration retains a lot of powers, but the president-elect already has diplomatic contacts”underlines the former deputy secretary general of NATO. “This is a very critical moment right now where diplomatic initiatives can be taken by Donald Trump.”
After his election victory, Donald Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The latter greets a “excellent” exchange. “We agreed to maintain dialogue and advance our cooperation. Strong and determined leadership in the United States is vital for the world and for a just peace,” writes the President of Ukraine on the social network X.
“The reality is that the United States will be less involved in European security because its priority is China and the Indo-Pacific, because it has limited resources and because “they have an internal debate which does not encourage them to invest in European security”, tempers Camille Grand. According to the former deputy secretary general of NATO, it is the “basic trend”. A victory for the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, would also have “required Europe to take greater responsibility for its security, preferably in an alliance with the United States.”
Camille Grand questions the capacity of the 27 member countries of the European Union “to coordinate”, “to have a common message on Ukraine, on their defense efforts”. European leaders are meeting this Thursday evening in Budapest. Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban – who supports Donald Trump and displays pro-Russian positions – will also welcome Volodymyr Zelensky.
For this specialist in defense issues at the European Council on International Relations, Europeans must also quickly “send clearer signals” in the United States to reassure “this part of American opinion” skeptical, showing that the European Union “really takes charge of Europe’s security” and that she “does not see the United States as the ultimate guarantee of security on a global scale.” Camille Grand emphasizes that European countries “are spending a lot more money than when Donald Trump was first president.”
