what the election of Donald Trump could change for the Middle East

what the election of Donald Trump could change for the Middle East
what the election of Donald Trump could change for the Middle East

During his first term, Donald Trump made a lasting impression by transferring the Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. His return to business could bring the United States and the Jewish state even closer together.

Will Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office mark a turning point for Middle Eastern countries? One thing is certain: after more than a year of war in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and the extension of the conflict in Lebanon against Hezbollah, a second term for the Republican raises all the hopes on the side of the Israeli government.

On Wednesday morning, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the very first leaders to congratulate the Republican on his victory, even going so far as to describe it as “the greatest comeback in history.” “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” he added on his X account.

The head of government is far from the only one to be resolutely enthusiastic about the future 47th President of the United States. According to an opinion poll published last week by the N12 television channel, 66% of Israelis surveyed said they wanted Donald Trump to win, compared to 17% who hoped to see Kamala Harris win.

However, Donald Trump was not particularly verbose during his campaign regarding the situation in Gaza and the way in which he intended to weigh in on this issue. Last April, he simply declared that the Israelis “must finish what they started” and believed that the Jewish state was “losing the communications war” due to the images of the destruction of the territory broadcast in the media.

“We must end it quickly. Win, obtain victory and put an end to it. This must stop, the killings must stop,” he insisted last August, while assuring that he intended to give the Israelis “the support they need to win.

Reconciliations with Benjamin Netanyahu

Israelis, however, have memories of Donald Trump’s first term in mind. During his presidency, he went against the grain of decades of American diplomatic tradition by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state in December 2017 and transferring the United States embassy from Tel Aviv to the Holy City. .

Donald Trump was also involved in the conclusion of the Abraham Accords, which saw Israel normalize diplomatic relations first with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, then with Morocco and finally with Sudan.

The end of the mandate was, however, marked by a sharp deterioration in relations between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. In particular, the congratulations sent by Benjamin Netanyahu to Joe Biden after his election at the end of 2020. A gesture interpreted as a betrayal towards him.

“Fuck him,” he said at the end of 2021, according to comments cited by Axios. “Bibi could have stayed silent. He made a huge mistake.”

“Trump is expected to be tougher on Iran”

Since then, the two leaders seem to have reconciled and met in Washington to display their newfound understanding last July. A sign of the importance given by the elected American president to his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, the two men spoke on Wednesday to discuss the “Iranian threat”, Tehran supporting Hamas and Hezbollah in the war opposing them to Israel.

“Given what he has said and what he has done before, we expect Trump to be tougher on Iran,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at Hebrew University. from Jerusalem cited by AFP. Because during his presidency, Donald Trump not only decided to leave the Vienna agreement on Iranian nuclear power but he also applied “a maximum pressure campaign” by increasing sanctions to strangle the country’s economy.

Another reason could push the former and future American president to once again follow an aggressive policy towards Tehran. Last July, the American media reported Iranian “threats” of assassination against Donald Trump, a project which would have been developed in retaliation for the elimination of General Qassem Soleimani, killed in 2020 by a American drone attack. For their part, the Iranian authorities described these accusations as “malicious”.

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