The first polling stations opened this morning and the tension of a very close vote is already being felt. The polling institutes themselves walk on eggshells; This Tuesday, November 5, the New York Times gave a very slight advantage to Joe Biden's current vice-president: 49% of voting intentions for Kamala Harris against 48% for her Republican opponent Donald Trump. For its part, The Economist announces between 50% and 56% chance of winning for the Democratic candidate.
In what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in history, many issues arise: what will happen in the event of a tie? When will the final results come out? Will there be legal recourse? The Americans, for the moment, are holding their breath. Find the state-by-state results tonight on our interactive map below, updated in real time.
To win, the winner must have a total of 270 electors
244 million Americans at the polls, the figure can be dizzying. This is almost 5 times the number of French voters in national elections. Founded on the Constitution of 1787, the American electoral system is however very different: after the organization of primaries to choose the candidate of each camp, the president is elected by indirect universal suffrage via the 538 electors of the 50 states that make up the country. Their number is proportional to the population of each state, with a minimum of three electors per state.
The Americans are therefore not voting directly for the candidates, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, but for one of the electors who will then cast their vote on December 17, 2024. The vote of the electors this November 5 nevertheless already seals the game.
To win the American presidential election, you must have at least half of the electors, i.e. 270 votes. It is therefore entirely possible for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to have a majority of voters at the polls this November 5 but not to win the final election.
If there is a tie (that is, if the two candidates each win 269 electoral college votes), there will be a contingent election. The election of the president is made by a House of Representatives (with one vote per state), which requires 26 votes out of 50. The vice president, for his part, is chosen by the Senate.
7 “swing states”, the pivotal states that can change everything
To gain access to the White House, you must also conquer as many “swing states” as possible, those key states where the results are the most uncertain and where the polls are unable to draw any conclusions. From one election to another, the results often vary from the Republican camp to that of the Democrats.
There are 7 “swing states”, which total 93 electors: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Pennsylvania is also particularly in the sights. Beyond having a large number of electors – 19 -, it is the state where the businessman Elon Musk concentrated his meetings in support of Donald Trump but also the one where the first attempt to vote took place. assassination of the ex-president in July 2024.
The two candidates are particularly focusing their efforts on these seven pivotal states, where the results are likely to be announced later.
When will the results be announced?
In the United States, the counting process is even longer as the offices do not close at the same time (the later ones will close their doors at 7 a.m. French time this Wednesday, November 6). The delay increases in the “swing states” where the difference in voices should be small, resulting in significant suspense.
The first results should nevertheless fall during the night of this Tuesday 5 to Wednesday 6 November in France, but the final vote – which fell after 3 days in 2020 – could be delayed again this year. Many fear legal recourse, as in 2020, and requests for vote recounts in certain states from the Republican camp. Furthermore, Donald Trump warned: if he loses, it will be because the Democrats will have cheated.
Once the result is announced by the media, it must be certified within five weeks. Finally, after the vote of the electors on December 17, the future 47th President of the United States will be inaugurated on Monday January 20, 2025 at the Capitol.
