With the American harvest barely over, all eyes are now focused on the presidential elections which are reaching their climax today. But which of the two candidates would be more favorable to wines? Michael Kaiser, director of Wine America, draws some ideas while waiting to know the results.
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he last term of Donald Trump will undoubtedly have left a bitter taste among many European exporters to the United States. Does this mean that his second term should give rise to new concerns? An inveterate abstainer, his hostility towards imported products is an open secret. In his manifesto, he has already declared his intention to impose customs duties ranging from 10 to 20% on all imports, whatever they may be, and to prioritize products manufactured on American soil. Aside from this global strategy targeting imports, are European wines in particular threatened, in particular by the imposition of new punitive customs duties in the event of Donald Trump's re-election? “ Absolutely. There is not a shadow of a doubt that he will and they are likely to be higher than last time », laments Michael Kaiser. “ Former President Trump will once again bring chaos to the White House, much like what we saw during his first term. The alcoholic beverages sector will be caught in the whirlwind of disputes that do not concern it “. Note, moreover, that on numerous occasions, the former American President has declared that customs duties on imported products represent, in his point of view, one of the main solutions to the economic problems of the United States.
Temptations in a Bear Market
Facing him, Kamala Harris, wine consumer, Californian and member of at least one oenophile club. Could these affinities color its policy towards the wine sector? “ I don’t think so,” believes Michael Kaiser. “On the other hand, I think that it will seek to implement policies which will favor small businesses and therefore small wine businesses “. In the context of a declining wine market, voices have recently been raised within the American wine industry to criticize the competition from imported wines. From there to imagining policies favoring local production to the detriment of imports, there is only one step, which the director of Wine America, the only national professional association serving wines in the United States with 500 members, does not take. members. “ We are not in favor [à la réinstauration de droits de douane ou d’autres mesures qui pourraient porter atteinte aux vins importés] because they create market distortion factors. Furthermore, we do not want to face retaliatory measures “. As Michael Kaiser pointed out in a recent column on the elections: “ Tariffs imposed on imported wines indirectly harm American wine companies by undermining the wholesalers they rely on to distribute their wines ».
An influential President
In addition to the sword of Damocles represented by the Airbus-Boeing conflict – which must return to the table by mid-2026 – but also the recurring disputes around the taxation of American technology giants in Europe, other issues could affect the wine trade in the United States, starting with the updating of dietary recommendations, planned for 2025. “ The President has the ultimate authority to ensure that federal agencies follow the path he wants them to take. », recalls Michael Kaiser. “ The White House has the ability to influence agency action ».
And the winner is…
Suffice to say that the choice of President represents a major issue for the wine trade across the Atlantic, an importance which makes the director of Wine America say, “personally but from a professional point of view…I think the Vice President will be the “most favorable/least detrimental” President for the sector. I think his administration will continue to look a lot like the Biden administration in terms of alcohol regulations and so on. The Vice President is considered to be proposing a more robust regulatory agenda, but if she continues in line with the Biden administration, the wine sector should do well, overall. ».
