In its base scenario, TotalEnergies therefore foresees a peak in oil demand “rather around 2035”, followed by a high plateau and a “very slow decline”.
( AFP / ASTRID VELLGUTH )
The peak in global oil consumption should be reached at the earliest after 2030, according to TotalEnergies' annual report on the evolution of the global energy system, published Monday, November 4, one week before the COP29 climate conference. The annual UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11-22) must conclude with a new target for financial aid to developing countries, so that they can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change caused by fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas).
Just after the International Energy Agency (IEA) last month, the 4th largest oil and gas major in the world also wanted to unfold its vision for the energy of tomorrow. For its 6th edition, its report examines the prospects for development of the global energy system according to
three possible decarbonization scenarios by 2050
a key milestone in the fight against climate change.
The first, based on current policies, and the 2nd, intermediate, both lead to a rise in the planet's temperature well beyond 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. Only the “rupture” scenario is aligned with the Paris agreements, that is to say allowing the achievement of a rise in temperatures of less than 2 degrees by 2100.
But in the first two scenarios,
TotalEnergies does not foresee a peak in oil demand before the end of the current decade
contrary to IEA forecasts. Among the reasons, the group cites the increase in energy demand in developing countries and persistent obstacles in the energy transition, including in rich countries, between insufficient investments in electricity networks and lower penetration of electric cars. than expected.
From fifteen to forty years old
“Today, we still have less than 20% of electric vehicles in the mix of vehicle sales in Europe,” underlined Aurélien Hamelle, general director of Strategy & Sustainability at TotalEnergies.
“To drive changes in energy systems, extremely long periods of time are required.
of the order of fifteen, 20 or 30, even 40 years,” he added.
In its base scenario, TotalEnergies therefore foresees a peak in oil demand “rather around 2035”, followed by a high plateau and a “very slow decline”. Oil demand would still reach around 90 million barrels per day in 2050, barely less than the 104 million barrels of oil consumed every day today, according to OPEC forecasts for 2024.
In the intermediate scenario, the peak would occur “just after 2030”, followed by a plateau, and a decline “a little more marked” with a demand of the order of “65 million barrels per day in 2050” . In the rupture scenario, it would occur “a little before 2030” and oil consumption would fall to 44 million barrels per day in 2050.
Whatever the scenarios,
TotalEnergies expects an increase in gas demand at least until 2030
or even beyond 2040 depending on the scenarios, an energy that he considers inevitable to compensate for the intermittency of wind and solar energy and to “decarbonize” electricity. A gas-fired power plant releases about half as much CO2 into the atmosphere as coal-fired power plants. The latter still represented in 2022
74% of electricity produced in the world.
