Global oil demand is at the heart of divergent forecasts between major energy companies, notably TotalEnergies and BP, two major players in the sector. In its latest annual report published on November 4, 2024, TotalEnergies announces a peak in oil demand after 2030, estimating that this late deadline is caused by various factors, including population growth, delays in investment in electricity infrastructure and a adoption of electric vehicles slower than expected. These elements contrast with BP's forecasts, which expect a peak from 2025.
The three TotalEnergies scenarios
TotalEnergies presents three distinct scenarios for the evolution of oil demand between now and 2050:
1. Current trends: In this scenario, global oil consumption would continue to grow, reaching around 90 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2050, with a peak expected after 2035. This outlook is based on a continuation of current practices and current trends.
2. “Momentum” scenario: Here, global oil demand peaks just after 2030 before gradually decreasing to around 70 Mb/d in 2050. This scenario assumes a moderate energy transition, with technological advances and behavioral changes, but at a slow pace.
3. “Disruption” scenario: Aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, this scenario predicts a peak in global oil demand before 2030, followed by a marked decline to 44 Mb/d in 2050. In this case, countries would adopt stricter decarbonization policies and increase investments in renewable energy.
Natural decline and new oil projects
Despite recognizing a future peak in demand, TotalEnergies emphasizes the need to continue investing in new oil and gas projects. The company points out that the natural decline of existing oil fields, estimated at around 4% per year, creates pressure to maintain sufficient production. For TotalEnergies, offsetting this decline requires continued investments in mature and affordable technologies, such as gas-fired power plants and renewable energy, in order to gradually replace coal-fired power plants still in operation.
CO₂ capture and storage, a key technology
TotalEnergies also has high hopes for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage technologies, as well as the development of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, innovations that it believes could play a significant role from the 2030s The company considers these technologies to be crucial elements in achieving global climate goals while supporting the energy transition, particularly in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize.
The United States and China, major players in the transition
TotalEnergies identifies the United States and China as potential drivers of the global energy transition. The United States, thanks to its investment capacity and domestic energy production, is seen as a possible leader in electrification and decarbonization. For its part, China could accelerate the transition by investing massively in renewable energy and adopting stricter environmental policies.
Divergent predictions in the oil sector
TotalEnergies' forecasts contrast with more conservative outlooks from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The IEA recently revised down its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, due to the rapid adoption of renewable energy and economic slowdowns in China. It anticipates demand growth of 1.2 Mb/d in 2024, compared to 1.3 Mb/d previously. As for OPEC, it reduced its own estimates for demand growth in 2024, noting falling demand in China.
These divergent forecasts highlight the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of global oil demand, as players in the energy sector attempt to adapt to economic dynamics and technological innovations. For TotalEnergies, the need to reconcile current energy needs with the objectives of reducing CO₂ emissions remains crucial, which makes the deployment of hybrid technological solutions all the more strategic.
