This volatility complicates predictions, as poll results vary widely between sources. To try to provide an overview, the RealClearPolitics site combines data from different polls, thus providing an average of voting intentions by state.
Arizona (11 electors)
According to the site, Republican candidate Donald Trump would lead by 2.5 points in this southwestern American state, with 49% of voting intentions, compared to 46.5% for Kamala Harris. The dynamics show that the gap widened particularly during the month of October.
North Carolina (16 electors)
Most polls show Donald Trump leading in North Carolina, a state he had already won in previous elections. According to RealClearPolitics, the billionaire would have a lead of 1.5 points. That being said, the trend is towards a reduction in the gap over recent months.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
The situation is very uncertain in Nevada. Donald Trump would be leading by one point ahead of the vice-president (48.5% against 47.5%). The evolution of these averages shows a very small gap between the two candidates since August (often less than one point). On October 8, it stood at 1 point in favor of Kamala Harris.
Pennsylvania (19 electors)
Still according to the same site, the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was 0.3 points on Sunday, with the Republican candidate in the lead two days before the election. He then obtained 48.3%, compared to 48% for the Democrat.
Georgia (16 electors)
The dynamic is reversed from one poll to another in this state long conquered by Donald Trump, even if Joe Biden had won in 2020. According to figures updated on Sunday by RealClearPolitics, the billionaire is the favorite in Georgia, with 49 .4% of respondents in her favor compared to 47.5% for Kamala Harris.
Michigan (15 electors)
In this northern US state, Kamala Harris’s lead stands out in most polls. Still according to the poll compiler, the Democrat would be 1.2 points ahead of Donald Trump. A Marist poll carried out at the end of October even gives the Democratic candidate a 3-point lead.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Canada
