“It is impossible to say today who is best placed to winunderlines Tanguy Struye, professor of international relations at UCLouvain and specialist in American affairs. We can speculate as much as we want, but polls are problematic. We don't always know if they are reliable, as we have seen before. What is certain is that the race is extremely close. Pennsylvania could well be the decisive state, but other surprises could arise in Florida, Michigan, Georgia or Arizona. These key states will be decisive for the outcome of the election”.
A society more polarized than ever
In recent years, the American political and social landscape has been increasingly marked by extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats, particularly because of differences between the two parties such as on immigration, health, and the economy. Rising inequality has also created distrust of elites and fueled populism.
“The problem is that American society is so polarized that the share of voters who can switch between Trump and Harris is extremely small, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the votehe continues. Mobilization will be a crucial issue: will the two parties succeed in mobilizing their base and voters in general? Another key issue concerns undecideds, moderate Republicans and independents, who will play a decisive role in the next 15 days..
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Trump more radical, Harris mobilizing
During the campaign, Donald Trump had a remarkable ability to mobilize voters through simple rhetoric. His way of communicating allows him to reach a wide audience, even if his ideas can be controversial.
“Donald Trump appears more extremist than ever as the American presidential election approaches, judge Michel Liégeois, professor of international relations at Uclouvain. Already very radical, it is even more so today. We are clearly dealing with a candidate of the extreme right, expressing sometimes racist remarks in a direct and unreserved manner, with clearly xenophobic ideologies.”
However, this does not always work in his favor during this campaign, although it should be noted that some observers consider him to be moderate when it comes to his statements. “Voters rely more on programs than on speeches. And when we examine the details of his proposals, particularly in terms of economic policy, the majority agree that they would lead the country into a wall. His program, which could increase inflation through tax increases and tariffs, risks negatively impacting those who vote for him, leading to inflationary consequences that his supporters will primarily suffer.
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As for Kamala Harris, her main asset lies in her ability to mobilize the Democratic Party, particularly over the last three months. And we must not forget that she was able to attract Republican voters, which is an achievement in itself.
“She demonstrates better mastery of issues, in particular by presenting a solid project for the United States in terms of domestic and economic policy. Although not everyone agrees with his ideas, his approach is impactful, recognizes Tanguy Struye. On the other hand, she finds herself in a situation where she must defend Biden's legacy. This could prove tricky and risky for her, as voters might judge her on Biden's record, which, while he has his positives — like a 4% unemployment rate and economic growth — is not not free from criticism. Moreover, although Biden's foreign policy has been relatively stable, apart from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the overall record could be perceived negatively by an American society plagued by major concerns..
Exit traditional media
In recent months, Harris and Trump have favored influencers and podcasters over traditional mainstream media. From podcasts to YouTube, all means are good for expressing yourself. A new trend which is to the detriment of traditional television interviews which still represent an important issue. It must be said that there is a trend observed almost everywhere: people read less traditional press.
“In response, candidates are carrying out actions that they consider more interesting by being interviewed by influencers or on YouTube channels to reach the new generation. In addition, their presence on social networks has become essential”he says.
The advertising battle
With this in mind, the two candidates waged a remote war on social networks, where the purchase of advertisements on Facebook and Instagram became a major electoral issue. According to a study published this week, we learn that it was the Democrats who bet the biggest on Meta brands.
For every dollar spent on advertising by Donald Trump, the Democratic camp spent 10. Over one year, Joe Biden, then Kamala Harris purchased a little more than $51 million in advertising on Facebook and Instagram compared to 5.8 million dollars for their rival.
“The candidates communicate a lot on social networks, in particular Kamala Harris, whose campaign videos are very present. During internal debates within the Democrats, she was criticized for putting too much emphasis on social networks to the detriment of the media traditional, like television and Fox News where she finally visited this week However, she remains active at all levels, just like Trump.“.
An astronomical debt
While reaching nearly $1,830 billion, the United States' public deficit is gigantic. And the measures promised by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are necessarily in the sights of economists.
“Biden's arrival coincided with a difficult moment, but in three years he managed to restart the economy. When he left office, Trump had left a public deficit of 8,000 billion dollars. If the “We look at Trump's economic plans, they could exacerbate this problem. Indeed, one of the weak points of the American economy is this debt, which amounts to 35,000 billion dollars.”analyzes Michel Liégeois.
What consequences for us?
Generally speaking, it is important to point out that we do not yet know how the votes will take place in the Senate and the House of Representatives, two important points for the future. For example, even if Trump gains a majority in both chambers, that does not guarantee that he will be able to pass his agenda, which is a critical consideration.
And concretely, if we examine Kamala Harris' program, we notice a certain continuity with Biden's policies, although this does not exclude certain nuances and novelties.
“Under Trump, on the other hand, we already know that we will have to fear certain measures like those of “Project 2025”, which would lead to a massive politicization of the entire American government. This would represent a huge change, especially in terms of foreign policy , which would be much more complicated to manage with an intensification of economic and geopolitical tensions, particularly at the European level, as well as in Ukraine, where the problems could worsensays Tanguy Struye. I say this objectively: the arrival of Trump for a second term would be very difficult for us, Europeans, while with Harris, we would see more continuity, with a possible interesting development. Indeed, Democrats are generally less pro-Israel, which could allow the United States to play a more positive role in peace efforts..
Concerning Trump, there are also risks of tensions within NATO. Managing the situation in Ukraine could become problematic because it is likely that, under his presidency, the Americans would push for an exit agreement. However, as we have seen in the past, these agreements are often doomed to failure.
“There is a risk that this agreement will be completely unfavorable to Ukrainian rights and interests, as Trump would seek to facilitate a quick solution without regard for the long-term consequenceshe fears. Furthermore, this would also cause big problems in commercial relations. Where Biden has tried to cooperate with Europe, even in times of tension, there have always been consultations. Under Trump, we already know he would impose tariffs on Chinese and European goods. For example, if BMW manufactured in the United States, it would be under strictly American conditions, and if those cars were exported to Europe, they would be taxed. This would lead to tensions with Europe, which would be weakened, but Trump would not care.
