Iran would therefore have chosen the path of escalation. According to two Iranian sources cited by the New York Times, Tehran will retaliate after the Israeli attack of October 26. The strikes were carried out in retaliation for Iran's October 1 missile attack. Attack which was itself a reaction to the assassinations which had targeted several Iranian officials or allies of Iran.
« Iran's response to Zionist aggression is clear. We have never left an attack unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying everything the Zionists have in a single operation said General Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran plans a fierce and brutal response ” has “ the desperate action » of Israel, also indicated the head of the supreme leader's office, Gholamhossein Mohammadi Golpayegani.
Avenge the death of slain soldiers
During its attack on October 26, Israel notably destroyed a large part of the Iranian air defense around the capital and strategic sites, such as refineries. “ If Iran makes the mistake of launching another barrage of missiles at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran and hit very, very hard », Warned Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, last week. The officer suggested that the destruction of the air defense was a message to Iran. “ We might have to (attack) again. This event is not over; we're still right in the middle of it. »
Why would Iran take the risk of attacking Israel, which will retaliate again shortly after? According to Iranian sources, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself ordered the preparation of new strikes against his sworn enemy. He would have made his decision taking into account the extent of the damage caused by the Israeli strikes but also because of the death of at least four Iranian soldiers.
After the American elections?
« They are willing to take this risk so as not to appear weak and prove that they have power for the sake of national and international credibility », Estimates Sina Azodi, expert on the Iranian army and assistant professor at George Washington University, to the New York Times. A new Iranian attack would be seen as an escalation by Iran, but they do not see it as an existential threat “. A risky bet: American President Joe Biden had used all his weight to dissuade Israel from bombing Iran's nuclear program or the country's oil installations. Israel is unlikely to hold on to it a second time.
Iranian officials still quoted by the New York Times specify that several dozen military targets in Israel have been selected for the future attack. But Iran would also be tempted to play the caution card and wait before taking action. Tehran fears that a new outbreak of violence against Israel just before the American presidential elections will benefit Donald Trump, another sworn enemy of Iran. The new Iranian attack could therefore take place between November 6 and the inauguration of the next American president.
