London (awp/afp) – The dollar fell on Monday, weighed down by a rise by Kamala Harris in polls on the American presidential election published this weekend, while the prospect of a Trump victory had previously supported the greenback.
Around 10:20 a.m. GMT (11:20 a.m. in Paris), the American currency fell by 0.57% against the euro, to $1.0896, and fell by 0.35% against the pound, to $1.2970. .
“The polls published this weekend have shaken the certainty with which some market players were able to bet on the victory of Donald Trump,” noted Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank.
In particular, an influential poll from the local daily Des Moines Register gives Kamala Harris the winner in Iowa, a state where her Republican opponent has won in each of the last elections.
However, the greenback had previously benefited from market bets on a new election of the ex-president, who plans to implement “inflationary policies, potentially reducing the ability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates. interest,” said Hal Cook, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The outcome of the vote will be decided on Tuesday, with most polls showing the two candidates neck and neck.
The Mexican peso is also benefiting from Kamala Harris' improving prospects for victory. It jumped 0.84% against the greenback, to 20.11 pesos per dollar.
During his campaign, Donald Trump said he was considering introducing “terrible” customs duties in the event of electoral success, to “bring back” businesses to the United States.
As a result, the Mexican currency reached its lowest against the dollar on Friday since September 2022, at 20.29 pesos.
The American central bank (Fed) will meet on Wednesday and Thursday, just after the election. The markets are at this stage counting on a drop in interest rates of a quarter of a point.
They expect an equivalent cut in the key rate from the Bank of England, which will also make a monetary policy decision on Thursday.
Monday lessons Friday lessons
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10H20 GMT 21H00 GMT
EUR/USD 1,0896 1,0834
EUR/JPY 165.59 165.77
EUR/CHF 0.9412 0.9424
EUR/GBP 0,8401 0,8386
USD/JPY 151,97 153,01
USD/CHF 0,8638 0,8700
GBP/USD 1,2970 1,2924
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