Hottest May on record
His remarks accompany the coordinated publication of the latest scientific alerts: May 2024 was the hottest month ever recorded in the world (on land and sea), the 12th month in a row to beat its own record, according to the European observatory Copernicus. And it is 80% likely that the global average temperature over a calendar year will “temporarily” exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C by 2028, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) added, as we we are at around 1.2°C over the last decade, according to a study also published Wednesday by dozens of renowned climatologists.
Humanity is therefore flirting with the limit of 1.5°C adopted by almost the entire planet in the 2015 Paris agreement, with one difference: this +1.5°C must be reached on average over decades to be considered our new stabilized climate.
Alarming figures
A bad sign nonetheless: the year 2023, the hottest on record, ended with an anomaly of 1.48°C compared to 1850-1900, according to Copernicus, under the effect of climate change and a occasional excess warming brought by the natural El Nino phenomenon. Over 12 rolling months, 1.5°C has even already been crossed: the average temperature from June 2023 to May 2024 was +1.63°C, according to Copernicus, compared to 1850-1900. Unprecedented, probably for millennia according to climatologists, who note the multiplication and intensification of deadly heatwaves, droughts and devastating floods across the world.
“Global emissions must decrease by 9% per year until 2030 so that the limit of 1.5°C is not exceeded,” recalled Antonio Guterres. But the peak has not yet been officially reached.
If humanity agreed at COP28 in Dubai in December to gradually abandon fossil fuels, their decline is not yet imminent.
“Highway to Hell”
Under these conditions, Antonio Guterres regretted that the climate crisis was no longer at the center of attention. “We cannot let the horrific conflicts” in the world “distract us from the existential threat to humanity, climate change.” First target of his criticism, as usual, the fossil fuel sector (coal, oil, gas), “the Godfathers of climate chaos” who “amass record profits and gorge themselves on billions of billions in subsidies”.
“I call on every country to ban advertising for fossil fuel companies.”
“I call on every country to ban advertising for fossil fuel companies”, like the bans for other “products harmful to human health, such as tobacco”, launched Antonio Guterres. “This is a critical moment for the climate,” insisted the Secretary General, calling for “taking the exit ramp from the highway to hell”, while countries around the world must submit by early 2025 new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The Secretary General also repeated his call to tax the profits of the fossil fuel industry to finance the fight against global warming, also mentioning, without specifying his idea, “solidarity taxes” on aviation and maritime transport. “Even if emissions were reduced to zero tomorrow, a recent study showed that climate chaos would cost at least $38 trillion per year by 2050,” he said. That is much more than the 2,400 billion needed by 2030 for developing countries (excluding China) to move away from fossil fuels and adapt to global warming, according to a calculation by UN experts.
This speech comes at a time when representatives from around the world are meeting in Bonn, at the UN Climate headquarters to advance delicate climate negotiations before COP29 scheduled for Baku at the end of the year (November 11-22). This must conclude with a new agreement on financial aid from rich countries to the rest of the world to achieve their climate objectives.
