Real estate situation note from the Notaries of France: what is the assessment at the end of August 2024?

The Notaries of France have published their latest real estate situation report.

A measured optimism? The cumulative volume of transactions for old housing over the last 12 months reached 780,000 transactions at the end of August. The annual decline is now 18.1%, or a percentage, for the second consecutive month, below 20%.

Sales represent 2.1% of housing stock, a share down since the high point of 3^e quarter 2021 (3.2%). At the current rate, the year should end above 700,000 transactions, the lowest point ever reached since May 2015.

However, the real estate market finally seems to be beginning its end of the downward cycle after two years of brutal decline. Optimism, certainly measured, is now required in the approach to a market which nevertheless remains governed by credit rates. Overall inflation is expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and the successive decisions of the European Central Bank to lower its key rates as well as the re-energization of banking organizations bring hope.

A drop in prices which is attenuating significantly. Prices of old housing fall for the 4th^e consecutive quarter over a year (-5% in 2^e quarter), both for apartments and houses.

According to projections on pre-contracts, the annual fall in prices of old housing should gradually ease significantly (-2.6% at the end of November). This slowdown would be faster for apartments (-2.2%) than for houses (-2.9%).

In the provinces, prices of old housing fell by 4.3% over one year on 2^e quarter. The fall in prices continues at the same rate, both for houses (- 4.4%) and for apartments (- 3.8%).

Increase in the share of sales made by seniors. From 2019 to 2023, the distribution of home sales by age of sellers remained almost stable. Seniors were responsible for approximately one in two sales on the existing market. But since the start of 2024, their share has increased significantly, with 56% of sales recorded in 2^e quarter, an increase of 4 points compared to the 2^e quarter 2023. The average age of sellers thus increased from 59 years and 10 months to 61 years between the 2^es quarters of 2023 and 2024.

To go further: The real estate situation note No. 65

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