Marked by heavy rains, recurring floods and sometimes marked cold episodes, the weather experienced by France during this meteorological spring of 2024 may have seemed in contradiction with the major trend of global warming. But, in reality, “bad weather” and warming are far from contradictory.
One of the warmest springs
Firstly, because, despite the feelings that everyone may have had, it was, in the spring of 2024, rather hot in France. “All the first months of the year saw temperatures above normal,” recalls Yann Amice, meteorologist at Weather & Co. “In the month of May, we will have a classic month of May, but now, that’s what seems abnormal to us! ».
In other words, we have become accustomed to high temperatures. So much so that we almost forget that the spring of 2024 was one of the hottest ever recorded in France. According to data relayed by Infoclimat, a reference site for sharing climate data, the period March 1 – May 20 is, with an average temperature of 12.41°C, the 7th warmest since the 1930s.
Rains intensified by global warming
In reality, the rains which have fallen in large quantities in most French regions in recent weeks are not incompatible with global warming. On the contrary, it is even likely to have intensified them.
For what ? Because, as the physical law known as the “Clausius-Clapeyron formula” explains, “the hotter the air, the more water it can hold in the form of vapor”, summarizes Yann Amice. According to the formula, an atmosphere 1°C warmer can therefore contain 7% more humidity. Humidity which is then destined to fall on land, in the form of precipitation, the quantities of which are increased accordingly.
“It is now increasingly clear that climate change is causing an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation”confirms Météo France.
Among these “ extreme precipitation “, include those that fell during storms, including the spring 2024 was not stingy. Again, in a warmer climate, this is not a surprise. “In a warmer climate, extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms, are and will be more violent”concludes Yann Amice.
