The world has become increasingly dependent on the supply of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) in recent years. This has been true of Asia for a decade, notably China, Japan and South Korea, but it is also true of Europe which has found a way to do without Russian gas transported by pipelines. And this appetite for LNG is expected to grow significantly in the coming years to the point of creating possible shortage problems. It takes time to develop new infrastructure: production, liquefaction and transport (terminals and LNG tankers).
According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 64 million tonnes of additional annual liquefaction capacity will be put into service in the coming years. By 2027, Qatar will increase its production capacity from 77 to 126 million tonnes of LNG, an increase of 64%. The United States must quickly acquire 38 million additional tonnes of annual production capacity after breaking its export record last year at 91 million tonnes. There is no precedent for such speed in the history of the global gas industry. And at the same time, Europe will considerably increase its regasification capacities, by well over 50 million tonnes per year by 2027 according to a study by Wood Mackenzie.
With the blessing of the European Commission
All this is being done with the blessing of international institutions which have even, in the case of the European Commission, qualified natural gas as a transition energy between coal and renewables… notably to please Germany.
But LNG actually poses serious environmental and climate problems. First of all, we should not forget that it remains a fossil fuel. Major oil and gas companies claim that LNG can reduce carbon emissions by 40 to 50%. Industry spokespeople often talk about “settled science,” but the numbers aren’t as clear. Not at all even, to the point of being violently contested by scientific studies published in 2018, 2020 and 2022 and at the beginning of the year by Cornell University. As a result, the Biden administration imposed a moratorium on the development of new LNG terminals in the United States.
The entire fuel life cycle
After peer review, the Cornell University study was published earlier this month by a renowned scientific journal, the Energy Science & Engineering journal. It claims that LNG could in fact emit 33% more greenhouse gas emissions over its entire life cycle than coal over a period of 20 years! “ Even if we consider a period of 100 years, which greatly underestimates the climate damage of methane, the footprint of LNG is equal to or greater than that of coal ».
Although coal is the most polluting fossil fuel when burned, taking into account the entire life cycle of the fuel gives very different results. The majority of greenhouse gas emissions associated with LNG are linked to upstream activities, including drilling and extraction, liquefying the gas and then transporting this liquefied natural gas around the world and remanufacturing it. normal temperature (regasification). LNG during its life cycle notably emits a lot of methane in addition to CO2 during its combustion. And methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon even though it has a shorter lifespan. Ultimately, the actual combustion of natural gas would only represent a third of the emissions from this fuel.
« Ending the use of LNG should be a global priority… »
« The idea that coal is worse for the climate is false. LNG has a larger greenhouse footprint than any other fossil fuel », Says the author of the study, Professor Robert Howarth of Cornell University. “ Thinking that we should transport this gas around the world as a climate solution is simply wrong. This is greenwashing on the part of oil and gas companies who have seriously underestimated the emissions of this type of energy “. Robert Howarth adds that there is “ no need for LNG as a transitional energy source ” and that “ending the use of LNG should be a global priority”.
A lobby in favor of LNG based in Paris
Unsurprisingly, the oil and gas industry fiercely disputes his findings. A pro-LNG lobby, the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, was recently created. He is based in France in Paris. It made a public appeal at its annual general meeting held recently in Hiroshima, Japan, saying that “ reduction of investments [dans le Gaz naturel liquéfié] will impact both access to affordable and reliable energy and economic growth for producers and consumers ».
