The return of good weather is traditionally accompanied by an upward impulse in real estate prices.
In this spring of 2024, prices have not increased over the last 30 days, but they have experienced a phase of calm after several months of continuous decline, according to the latest barometer from Meilleurs Agents, specializing in real estate valuation in line.
No return in spring
At 1er May compared to 1er April, prices remained stable at the national level (+ 0%). However, they increase by + 1% in Rennes (€3,942 per m²), + 0.7% in Marseille (€3,544 per m²) and + 0.6% in Nice (€5,122 per m²) and Bordeaux (4 €418 per m²). In Paris, after having fallen by -0.6% per month on average for a year, prices have only lost -0.3% (€9,259 per m²).
“This break in the downward dynamic only heralds a somewhat sluggish spring,” says Meilleurs Agents.
According to him, in 2023, the same phenomenon of price stabilization could be observed in large cities before they saw their prices fall, for the majority of them throughout the rest of the year.
In Nantes, for example, prices remained stable in March 2023 (0%) before decreasing by -9.5% over the last 12 months.
But prices falling in certain cities
Despite this general stabilization, certain French metropolises are not experiencing any respite at the start of spring. In Strasbourg, prices are sinking further into the red, falling by -1% (€3,718 per m²) in one month.
Same observation in Lyon, which also suffered a further fall in its prices of -1% (€4,782 per m²) in just 30 days, bringing the drop recorded since the start of the year to -2.6%.
Fragile renewed interest from buyers
In 7 of the 11 largest French cities, average sales times are shortening. It is in Toulouse that buyers are most dynamic (83 days on average, compared to 86 a month ago to complete a transaction).
In Lyon, Nantes, Lille and Bordeaux, buyers took one day less to take the plunge.
“Despite this slight improvement, it takes much more time than a year ago to complete a sale,” indicates Meilleurs Agents. In fact, sales times have increased by 17 days on average in the largest French metropolises in one year (including 19 days more in Toulouse, 20 in Montpellier and 21 in Bordeaux). In question, “a level of credit production which still remains particularly low. »
The market could regain color by the end of the year
The latest announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) suggest an improvement in its key rates in the coming months.
In mid-April, it decided to once again keep them unchanged. “For the real estate market, this return to a more accommodating policy would accelerate the decline in interest rates already initiated by the banks,” estimates Meilleurs Agents. This allowed buyers to regain a little real estate purchasing power on average (the equivalent of 6 m²).
“The future dynamics of the market now depends on the strategy that the ECB will adopt in the short term in terms of the pace and extent of the reduction in its key rates,” he continues. In the event that this makes it possible to achieve an average credit rate over 20 years of 3.5% (excluding insurance), project leaders would recover their real estate purchasing power from August 2022. Namely, 74 m² for a couple without children, at the national level, i.e. + 3 m² compared to today. »
