President Joe Biden threatens Israel not to deliver certain weapons to him in the event of a major offensive in the Gaza Strip. The United States is Israel’s largest arms supplier.
What are the consequences of stopping the shipment of American weapons? While Joe Biden threatened this Thursday, May 9, to curb military aid to Israel, in conflict with Hamas, the prospect of such an interruption would be difficult for the Jewish state to support.
If Israeli soldiers “enter Rafah, I will not deliver to them the weapons that have always been used (…) against cities”, warned the American president, in an interview with CNN, referring in particular to “shells from artillery”. This is the most severe warning issued to Israel by Washington since the start of the war against Hamas in the Palestinian territory on October 7.
Israel says it can stand alone
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly wanted to be confident and determined: “if we have to stand alone, we will stand alone,” he responded to Joe Biden. Army spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said for his part that the Israeli army had enough weapons to accomplish its mission in Rafah.
Already, a senior American official has confirmed the suspension, last week, of a delivery to Israel “of 1,800 bombs of 2,000 pounds (907 kg) and 1,700 bombs of 500 pounds (226 kg)”.
Washington first supplier to Israel
Despite Israel’s reassuring speech, the potential end of American arms deliveries would be highly detrimental for the Jewish state, while Washington is their main supplier.
“American participation is more than important, it is vital, because the Israeli army 100% has American equipment,” Jacques Neriah, a former military intelligence officer, assures BFMTV.
“There are (elements) that are built in Israel, but there are American components that are in all the weapons (used by Israel),” he then specifies.
Regular aid which amounts to billions per year
Since the start of the war between Hamas and Israel, the United States has approved tens of millions of dollars in arms sales, including two “emergency” sales. In detail, the sale of 13,981 120mm shells was approved for $106 million last December. Another sale of 57,000 155 mm shells and related equipment was also validated in December, for $147.5 million.
In the United States, only significant arms sales must be made public. The exact amount of weapons sent to Israel is therefore unknown. According to the Washington Post, more than 100 non-public military sales have been approved by President Joe Biden’s administration since the October 7 attack, including many of artillery munitions.
In addition to these two emergency sales, Washington has provided regular, free aid to Israel for many years. It is valued at more than $3.5 billion per year, according to official figures. Furthermore, it is also the United States which partly finances and supplies the equipment for the “Iron Dome”, Israel’s effective and very expensive shield against rockets fired from Gaza or Lebanon.
“A sign of tension” between the two allies
The suspension of arms deliveries “is clearly a sign of tension in relations and the growing pressure exerted on Joe Biden by the left flank of the Democratic Party to limit the number of Palestinian victims”, estimates from Agence France- Press (AFP) Raphael Cohen, from the RAND Corporation research group.
“(Joe Biden) is wary of the motivations of Netanyahu, who is trying to extend the war to the entire region to distract attention from the war which is going badly for him in Gaza,” analyzes Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, at AFP.
According to the researcher, the Israeli Prime Minister is also trying to “hide the very real differences that exist with the Biden administration” over the Palestinian territory, besieged by Israel and threatened with large-scale famine.
A simple “signal”?
Will the American threat be carried out? The White House has already tempered Joe Biden’s remarks, assuring that “the Israeli government has understood for a while” what Washington’s red line was which could slow down the delivery of weapons.
“(Joe Biden) will continue to provide Israel with the capabilities it needs (…) but he does not want certain categories of American weapons to be used” in certain types of situations, the spokesperson also indicated from the White House National Security Council John Kirby.
For the former Israeli ambassador to France Daniel Shek, the American president’s exit first acts as a “signal” or a “message” to Israel. “He hopes that it will do the trick and that he will not take action,” he told BFMTV.
Juliette Desmonceaux with AFP
