In less than a month, voters are called to go to the polls in all countries of the European Union. In France, the election will take place on Sunday June 9, to elect 81 European deputies by proportional representation.
Less than 30 days before the election, polls are multiplying and are even daily on LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, with a survey every day from Ifop-Fiducial for LCI. Enough to give a good image of the forces present, while the campaign gradually intensifies. Since 2009, this is what the polls indicated a month before the election.
The rise of the RN, the crash of the right
The polls reflect, European election after European election, the inexorable rise of the National Front which became the National Rally, which, one month before the election in 2009, had only 7% of voting intentions, compared to 31% today, fifteen years later, according to an Ifop Fiducial survey for LCI-Le Figaro-Sud-Radio.
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But the polls carried out one month before the election are sometimes a little far from the verdict of the ballot boxes. If in 2009 the polls had clearly seen the UMP in the lead, with 27% of voting intentions, against 27.88% in the polls, the PS had been overestimated: 22% in an Opinionway poll, against only 16.48% in ballot boxes. Conversely, EELV, given 9%, had collected 16.48% of the votes on election day. To a lesser extent than that of the PS, the Modem had been overestimated, given at 13% against barely more than 8% on election day.
The PS, often overestimated in the polls one month before the election
In 2014, the RN was given second position in certain polls such as that of Opinionway one month before the election, with 20% of voting intentions, while voters finally placed it in the lead, with nearly 25% votes.
The UMP, then in the lead with 22% of the votes, ultimately collected only 20.8%. Once again, the PS was overestimated in the polls one month before the election: given 18% voting intentions, it will only collect 14% of the votes on election day. And once again, but to a lesser extent than 2009, it was EELV which was underestimated, given at 7% against 9% on election day.
EELV, the usual surprise on voting day
In 2019, during the last election, the polls saw a close match between the RN and the presidential majority, in favor of the party then led by Marine Le Pen. A result which was confirmed at the polls. On the other hand, the polls gave third place to LR, with 14% of voting intentions. However, on election day, the list already led by François-Xavier Bellamy had only collected 8.48% of voting intentions.
The surprise once again came from EELV, credited with 7% of voting intentions in the polls, but which is not far from doubling its score on election day with 13.48% of the votes. Note that LFI, credited with 9% of voting intentions, had only collected 6.31% of the votes.
For the European elections of June 9, 2024, the polls put the National Rally in the lead with 31% of voting intentions, far ahead of the list of the majority led by Valérie Hayer (16% of voting intentions) and that of the PS -Place Publique by Raphaël Glucksmann, with 14% voting intentions. The LR, Ecologists (ex-EELV) and LFI lists are tied at 7% voting intentions, one month before the election. Abstention remains in the majority, and would concern more than one in two voters (52.5%), according to the IFOP-Fiducial barometer.
