The days of cheap DDR5 RAM may soon be over
Facial palm: DDR5 prices have dropped significantly since its debut a few years ago, with PC builders and DIY enthusiasts currently enjoying rock-bottom prices on the latest memory modules. However, the heyday of ultra-cheap DDR5 may be coming to an end, with a new report suggesting that DRAM prices could rise significantly over the next year.
According to analysts at market research firm TrendForce, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) prices are expected to increase by 5-10% in 2025 due to exceptionally high demand from the AI sector, which would lead to a increase in prices of other types of DRAM. Unfortunately for PC builders, this will also affect the DDR5 market, as it would see a 15-20% price increase, with memory makers expected to shift their priorities to the more lucrative HBM market.
HBM is about five times more expensive than DDR5, and the explosive demand for this type of memory is expected to “significantly increase” its share in the DRAM industry, both in terms of capacity and market value. Fueled by the AI boom, demand for HBM has reached fever pitch, with Micron and SK Hynix reporting that their high-bandwidth memory supply is fully booked for all of 2024 and a significant portion of 2025.
According to Avril Wu, senior vice president of research at TrendForce, HBM’s share of total DRAM capacity is expected to increase from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and exceed 10% by 2025, while its market value could exceed 30% of the total DRAM market. by the end of next year.
Although HBM offers significant performance and capacity advantages over other types of DRAM, it is also relatively more difficult to manufacture, meaning that additional production of HBM will likely reduce the resources required for manufacturing. other types of memory, notably DDR5, thus reducing their availability in the market and driving up their prices.
The report predicts that the annual growth rate of HBM demand will reach almost 200% this year and is expected to double again in 2025. There would also be a significant shift towards HBM3e next year, with the report forecasting a increase in 12Hi. stack the products. This change is expected to increase HBM capacity per chip, which should prove useful for AI solution providers.
