Belgian Cup Final: why the Union only has a 28/100 chance of winning

Belgian Cup Final: why the Union only has a 28/100 chance of winning
Belgian Cup Final: why the Union only has a 28/100 chance of winning

Lhe Belgian Cup, all Unionists have dreamed of it, since the second and last coronation of the Yellow and Blue in the competition, in 1914. They have enormous reasons to believe in it. But also some to be circumspect, especially if they are superstitious, which is characteristic of the majority of football fans.

In fact, the Union really deserves to win the final. For everything she has done in recent years, and because she eliminated Anderlecht and FC Bruges (in addition to Meux and Beveren), thus achieving a journey infinitely more glorious than that of Antwerp, scorers of Lierse , Sporting de Charleroi, OHL and Ostend…

But, precisely, that’s where the bone is! Because the statistics, which are worth what they are worth, indicate that, in the entire history of the Cup, we only have a 28% chance of lifting the trophy when we beat the Mauves and the Gazelles in the same period. editing !

Only seven times has a team achieved this double performance. And, five times out of seven, she didn’t go through with it. As in many other areas, it is the Zebras who have the prize since they experienced this misfortune twice! The Beerschot, in 1979, and the Standard, in 2018, are the two exceptions confirming the rule.

The detail :

>1966-1967: FC Mechelen eliminates Cappellen (promotion, 1-0), Diest (D2, 2-0), FC Bruges (3-3, tab 7-6), Daring (2-0), Anderlecht (2-0) and loses the final against Standard (1-3).

>1977-1978: SC Charleroi eliminates Eupen (D3, 2-1), VG Ostend (D2, 2-0), Anderlecht (3-3, 2-2, tab 4-5), Waterschei (1-0), FC Bruges (3- 1) and lost the final against Beveren (0-2).

>1978-1979: Beerschot eliminates Geel (D3, 5-0), La Gantoise (D2, 5-1), Standard (1-0), Anderlecht (3-1 for the Mauves then 2-0 for the Antwerp), and beats FC Bruges in the final (1-0).

>1980-1981: Waterschei eliminates Bilzen (D3, 10-1), Anderlecht (1-0), FC Bruges (6-2), Hasselt (2-2, 1-1) and is eliminated by Standard in the semi-final (2-5 at Waterschei, 3-2 at Sclessin).

>1986-1987: FC Liège eliminates Virton (D3, 0-2), RC Mechelen (D2, 3-0), FC Bruges (2-1, 1-1), Anderlecht (1-0, 1-1), CS Bruges (1 -2, 2-0) and lost the final against FC Mechelen (0-1).

>1993: SC Charleroi eliminates La Gantoise (2-1), FC Bruges (3-2), Beveren (1-0), Anderlecht (1-2 at Anderlecht, 3-2 at Mambourg) and loses the final against Standard (0-2 ).

>2018: the Standard eliminates Heist (D3, 4-0), Anderlecht (0-1), Ostend (2-3), FC Bruges (4-1 in Sclessin, 3-2 in Bruges) and beats Genk in the final (1-0) .

>2024: the Union eliminates Meux (D4, 2-1), Beveren (D2, 0-2), Anderlecht (2-1) and FC Bruges (2-1 in Bruges, 2-0 at Union), while waiting for the final…

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