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Multi-faceted protection
While the conflict in the Middle East causes intense tension, Israel for the moment still seems to be able to protect its population from projectile attacks from other forces, whether state like Iran, or not like Hezbollah or the Hamas. “Structurally, Israel is a state, and a military but also technological superpower, which relies in particular on the United States and a group of other countries. Israel has eyes and ears everywhere in the Middle East, we have seen it again through what it is doing with the strikes in Syria, and what we have been able to witness over the past two weeks in Lebanon”, analyzes Elena Aoun, professor at UCLouvain, specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Middle East.
The country is also in confrontation on all its borders, without being overwhelmed. “It is because it knows how to be protected that Israel is able to multiply the fronts on which it fights, without necessarily being in a logic of opening a united front, only to close it and move on to another.”
They can count on offensive weaponry, particularly in terms of aviation, which makes it possible to strike (in fact) anywhere in the Middle East. “On the defensive level, there is obviously the Iron Dome (shells, short-range rockets and drones), but also David’s Sling (short, long-range rockets and cruise missiles), and the Arrow system (long-range missiles). . You have a combination of three layers of protection, each specialized in intercepting projectiles of a certain range. These are very efficient systems. In the background, you also have the very active support of the United States.”
Disparity of forces
The country is in reality facing adversaries who do not have at all the same means as it. “Opposite you had the Iranian state, which has no other state in support, it only has allies who are non-state actors. The most important of them is also Hezbollah but we no longer know what remains of their capacity for action, at least on the regional stage. We have a big disparity in resources. We see this through everything that happened following October 7. There are no rockets or missiles which, fortunately, caused any casualties on the Israeli side..”
In many cases, there was no possibility of a response to the country’s capacity to wreak havoc on its neighbors. “Actors in the region, whether state or not, are totally incapable. They do not have the technology or defensive weapons necessary to confront Israel. When we look at Gaza, we see material and human destruction. Just like in Lebanon, there was not a single DCA (Defense Against Aircraft, Anti-Aircraft Defense) fired to deter an Israeli plane or the fall of a fired missile. We are in this great discrepancy of forces on both sides. But it is not only at the military level: there is a very large differential in population protection capacity. We see that Lebanon, the Palestinians, the Syrians are powerless. I’m in contact with Lebanese people, and we can’t imagine what it’s like. It’s terrible. The Lebanese army has not fired a single shot, they are completely incapable of doing so”, analyzes Elena Aoun.
Human fragility
At the defensive level, the country can therefore rejoice in having a response that protects its inhabitants from projectiles sent from all sides. But person-to-person attacks, like the one that took place yesterday, or during the tragic events of October 7, hurt the State. “Where the problem lies most is what some would call Palestinian terrorism, which struck again yesterday, causing several victims. It was not the 180 ballistic missiles fired by Iran that caused victims in Israel, but rather an action carried out by Palestinians. […] There is this proximity. They may well mobilize the entire range of the most advanced surveillance means in the world: cameras, communication networks, etc. They cannot quench this impulse for Palestinian resistance in the current explosive context.”
These attacks, which have caused many deaths over the years, still escape the country’s authorities. “When we look at the Israeli arsenal on the one hand, which is one of the most “up to date” on an international scale, and on the other what Hamas activists have at their disposal, there is no possible comparison. Israel is capable of confronting and protecting itself from any enemy, but when it comes from below, it is much more difficult.”
The conditions in which Palestinians live, as well as the conditions in Gaza or the West Bank, are part of the suffering caused by this conflict. “This condition of existence of the Palestinians as it has evolved at least since 1967, and Israeli expansion since, is truly a pressure cooker just waiting to explode. And that’s what happened on October 7. Then, the reprisals were unreserved. These are elements that are important to highlight because they allow us to understand the radicalization, the violence that we can see in this population which is due to the conditions in which they have evolved for years..”
