(CercleFinance.com) – The European stock markets appeared hesitant this Tuesday (+0.3% in London, +0.2% in Frankfurt, but -0.2% in Paris), divided between good news on the financial front. inflation and fears generated by the situation in the Middle East.
Confirming the trend revealed by data at national levels in recent days, the annual inflation rate in the euro zone is estimated at 1.8% in September, down sharply after a rate of 2.2% observed the previous month. .
‘It now appears very likely that after a temporary rebound in the headline rate due to base effects over the next three months, headline inflation will remain below the ECB’s target over the coming year.’ , reacts Capital Economics.
Predicting that this inflation rate will only be on average 1.6% in 2025, the London analysis office now anticipates a drop in the deposit rate of the European Central Bank by 25 basis points in October, to 3, 25%.
The prospect of monetary easing seems all the more justified in view of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI index, which fell from 45.8 in August to 45 last month, thus signaling a further deterioration in the economy. of the sector.
“What started as a very slight decline in the workforce in mid-2023 transformed into a marked drop in employment at the end of the third quarter of 2024,” points out Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
On the other hand, British manufacturing activity recorded a fifth consecutive month of growth in September thanks to the strength of domestic demand, with a PMI index standing at 51.5 for the past month.
On the other hand, the news from the Middle East is not enough to reassure investors, Israeli tanks having entered Lebanese territory last night, an offensive without precedent since 2006.
