Who will voters in Pennsylvania’s barometer county vote for? | US elections 2024

Since 2008, these voters have always voted for whoever won the race for the White House. Four presidential elections later, are they still attracted to change?

Like every morning, there are many customers at Dinor, a classic century-old restaurant in Lawrence Park, Erie County. Most of them are blue-collar workers or retirees who live in this city located not far from the shores of Lake Erie, just across from Canada.

Once again, the presidential election divides voters here. Shawna Mulligan, a waitress at the restaurant, has already made her choice: she will vote for Kamala Harris, even if times are tough for everyone. I don’t think wages are rising enough to pay what is needed and I feel really bad for young people who want to realize the dream of owning a home, she said. The American dream seems a little dead.

Three years ago, his boss, Dawn Van Scoter, bought the establishment. So this is her first election as a restaurateur, and it’s not easy every day.

Electricity and gas bills have increased exponentially, it’s not easy. I also want to pay my team a living wage, but personally, I don’t really give myself a salary so that my team can have good paychecks, and so I’m starting to get a little nervous about the economy.

Financially conservative and liberal on social issues, she does not deviate from her Republican vote for Donald Trump.

When Trump was president, I had a lot more money in my pocket, even during COVID. There, I didn’t really start to feel the effects of the improving economy.

This has always worried me, because I’ve been watching the price of orange juice since the day I bought this restaurant, and it was $2.98 a gallon, and now it’s $9 , in just three years.

At the back of the trade, her friend Robyn Wescott, a longtime Democrat, has a very different story. I think the situation is improving: people are shopping, going to restaurants, the price of gasoline is falling, as are interest rates, for that matter.

The friendship is obvious, but as soon as Donald Trump’s name is mentioned, the debate between the two friends begins. He’s a convicted felonmoon. It’s a set-upretorts the other.

Even if the conviction of Donald Trump is mentioned, inflation and the cost of living remain the number one concern here, as for Tom Thurman, 85, seated in one of the armchairs of the deserted hair salon next door. It’s terrible, he says: the price of all products has doubled or tripled in the last four years.

The rising cost of food has hurt the wallets of Erie County voters. Here, the median household salary is US$56,000, well below the national average of $75,000. Not surprisingly, people here are blaming Biden. However, Kenneth Louie, professor and director of the Institute for Economic Research at Penn State Berhend University in Erie, puts the responsibility of sitting presidents into perspective.

It is not accurate to say that the president has a large potential effect, because the economy is so complex that there are many things that result from the simple dynamics of how the economy works.

He examined proposals from Harris and Trump to help declining or stagnant industrial regions, like Erie County.

According to him, Kamala Harris’s proposals seem more detailed and more constructive. She wants to increase the supply of housing and, as far as the labor market is concerned, the recommendations she has made to provide help to families with children will be useful. He therefore believes that these policy proposals are going in the right direction.

On the other hand, former President Trump doesn’t offer much to the people of this county. He has promised to raise tariffs and duties and extend the 2017 tax cuts. However, according to many economists, these tax cuts are aimed at the wealthiest, therefore, for a region like Erie , it won’t have as big an impact.

Stephani Klassen recently opened a creperie in downtown Erie. She had no choice but to increase prices for her customers. It’s been difficult coping with inflation, she says, because she’s made sure her customers and employees can survive the rising cost of living.

As a small business, our tax rate is 23%, which is astronomical, and that’s what’s unfortunate, because I grew up with the idea that America was built on basis of mutual aid. To me, that means helping people and giving more credit to those who are doing it on their own.

Here as elsewhere, customer opinions are mixed regarding the presidential candidates. In Stephani Klassen’s opinion, it will be very close.

If, since 2008, voters here have always selected the winner of the race for the White House, from Obama twice to Biden via Trump, what will happen next November 5?

Joe Morris, chair of the political science department at Mercyhurst University, sees an advantage for Kamala Harris so far. About half the county’s population still considers Donald Trump a savior, but Donald Trump has been in office for four years and Erie County is virtually unchangedbelieves this political scientist.

And Kamala Harris represents the new thing. For people like the county residents who have been struggling for several years, the promise of something new is the promise of a better future.

However, this promise of a better future seems out of reach in the region’s help center, Home House, where, three times a week, around 500 people come to this food bank.

Kevin Nelson, the founder of this essential service, saw the change taking place in his city. Some of the vehicles that stop, you can tell they’re hard-working people, who just had a problem or lost a job or something, and just need a helping hand .

He believes that opportunities are rather limited for this population who has difficulty getting by. People are ready to work, but there is not enough work for everyone, laments Mr. Nelson. We live in a large industrial city that has scaled back a lot, and yes, there are a lot of high-level tech jobs, jobs that require college degrees, and few people fit that profile particular here.

Among the volunteers who also benefit from this helping hand, there is Rose, 65 years old. She doesn’t plan to vote this year because, disillusioned, she doesn’t know what would be good for her. Political scientist Joe Morris understands this attitude of voters. They have had enough of this negativity, of the candidates’ attacks on each other during a debate. And I think ultimately this election will probably hinge on this issue more than any other.

No matter: in her restaurant, Dawn Van Scoter stays the course on Trump’s economic program, as flimsy as it may be, even if the tariffs he would impose, in the opinion of economists, would increase prices to consumers. I feel like Donald Trump cares about people and getting our country back on track.

She concedes that a Kamala Harris victory is still possible. I don’t know what will happen if Kamala wins. I guess I will continue to live my life. I think that’s all I can do.

In the meantime, Biden and Harris’ economic record and the Republican candidate’s promises continue to create discord with her friend Robyn, who notes that she saw fewer Trump signs this time. It’s really funny, I saw fewer Harris signs, mereplies Dawn Van Scoter.

You’re still friends, aren’t you? I asked them.

Yes, they are still friends. We could never not be friends just because we disagree on politics and we both think we’re crazy in that regardsaid Dawn smiling.

It’s true. Every time she says something and I have proof or, at least, my own thoughts, and I can refute what she says, it’s the same thing: she doesn’t want to hear what I I have to say and I don’t want to hear what she has to say, so we don’t talk about politics often.

At least they are still talking to each other while waiting for this election, which is more polarizing than ever. However, only one of them will have voted for the winner of the race for the White House.

Will Erie County once again deserve its title as a barometer county? Response on November 5.