In this article, I’m going to talk about two potential bets I’m tempted to make in the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants game on Thursday night.
Here’s the problem, though: my numbers tell me these two bets are good, but I don’t like them. Let me explain.
My own analysis of the match tells me that the Cowboys should easily win this match. They just played two pretty bad games, so they could take advantage of the duel against the Giants to get back on track. There will be less pressure playing away, rather than playing at home and receiving boos from the fans.
I also like the fact that they didn’t give up after falling behind 28-6 to the Baltimore Ravens. They scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the game interesting, but failed to win the game.
After the game, star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb admitted he needs to have a better attitude when things go wrong. He should be focused tonight.
On the New York side, quarterback Daniel Jones is playing better, but he is facing a lot of pressure due to poor performance from the offensive line. It is very possible that he will be under duress very often by the Cowboys defense.
Before the season started, I read that rookie Malik Nabers would be the focal point of the offense. But until now, this has not been the case; he’s the whole attack on his own!
In the last two games, he has been targeted 30 times, while the second most targeted player has only been targeted 12 times. That’s a big difference.
While that’s good, it makes the Giants too predictable. Dallas will certainly have its eye on Nabers, pushing the Giants to beat them with another player. But the problem is they don’t have another playmaker on offense.
So, considering everything I’ve said all along, you probably think I’m going to jump on the Cowboys. But one thing scares me: the difference in points is too great,
The Cowboys are six-point road favorites. That kind of difference should be reserved for elite teams facing weak opposition, but the Cowboys don’t look like an elite team at all.
Obviously, they have Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The other receivers are OK, but nothing more. The running game has been non-existent, as indicated by the fact that the Cowboys are the third-fewest rushing team in the NFL this season. Dallas is a one-dimensional team and they don’t have many weapons in their passing game.
I grant you, Dallas has dominated the Giants in recent seasons, winning 13 of their last 14 games against them. That includes a 40-0 win over the Giants in New York last season. Don’t you think the Giants will be motivated to redeem themselves after a loss like this? They will want to take advantage that Dallas is in difficulty.
So, for all these reasons, and even if my analysis pushes me towards Dallas, I lean towards the differential of +6 for the Giants. It won’t be easy for the Cowboys to win this game with a difference of seven points or more.
The world’s best oddsmaker, Pinnacle, is also leaning toward the Giants. They have Dallas with a -6 differential at 2.07 odds, while New York, with a +6 differential, has 1.83 odds. So this tells me that taking the Giants at +6 with odds of 1.91, as is the case with many oddsmakers, is the right thing to do.
Another bet that caught my eye: the Giants’ point total, which is at 19.5. Once again, Pinnacle has put odds at 1.76 for the overcompared to 2.12 for the under. They tell us that the “over” is more likely to happen. Several book sellers offer the over at 1.87, which is a bargain.
Once again, I don’t really like this bet, but the numbers say otherwise, as does the revenge factor.
So, to summarize, if I were forced to choose a side and number of points, I would take the Giants with a differential of +6, in addition to taking the team’s point total above 19.5 points. But these bets make me nervous!
Good match!
