Without succeeding in threatening the score of the RN, which is well ahead, the New Popular Front obtains between 28 and 29% of voting intentions and could have, at the end of the second round next Sunday, 180 to 200 seats according to Ifop, 125 to 165 according to Ipsos, between 130 and 170 according to Opinionway or 115 to 145 according to Elabe.
“This is a very important score for the union of the left, but this union has not managed to get closer to the RN and therefore it does not allow us to approach the level of a very opposition group. strong”, notes Martial Foucault, from Cevipof, even if the projections could change depending on the Macronists’ withdrawals between the two rounds.
Another political scientist from Cévipof, Luc Rouban, considers that “there was hope on the left by creating an electoral union but it is a failure”. “The theory of a reserve army of abstainers was false. The left did not have a reserve army, it is at full tilt at 30%”, he adds.
Several deputies were re-elected in the first round, such as the boss of the PS Olivier Faure, his rebellious counterpart Manuel Bompard, the head of LFI deputies Mathilde Panot or even the ecologist Sandrine Rousseau.
But an emblematic figure of the left, the boss of the communists Fabien Roussel, was eliminated in the first round by the RN candidate in the 20th constituency of the North.
The Somme MP François Ruffin, a key cog in this alliance, is being overtaken in the Somme by an RN candidate but should benefit from the transfer of votes.
After the explosion of Nupes, following several disagreements between LFI and the Socialist Party, notably after the October 7 attack in Israel, and after a particularly violent European campaign, remaking an alliance seemed improbable.
Which Prime Minister
But in four days and four nights, the rebels, socialists, communists and environmentalists managed to overcome most of their differences and agree on a government program.
Not without the alliance sometimes faltering, notably with the omnipresence of the rebellious leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, considered a deterrent by the socialists, the environmentalists and the communists.
There is a risk of a situation similar to the previous legislature, notes Martial Foucault, stressing that Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s speech on Sunday evening “was still indicative of a pushback effect”. “The hypothesis that he is Prime Minister of a coalition may have put off a certain number of left-wing voters,” added the expert.
On Sunday, the leaders of the four parties in the alliance agreed on one point: in the three-way races where the RN comes out on top, the candidates of the New Popular Front will withdraw in the constituencies where they are in third place to block the far right.
And put pressure on Macronie and Les Républicains, to obtain the same Republican withdrawal from them to block the RN.
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon went as far as he could,” notes a socialist. “There could have been a fracture this evening, but he stuck to the position determined by the party leaders,” says the same person happily.
However, “when he arrives with a laughing face, with Rima Hassan and his keffiyeh, it doesn’t help,” he emphasizes about the MEP, an activist for the Palestinian cause, at his side when he commented on the results of this first round.
And there is no doubt that the final results of the legislative elections next Sunday will rekindle the battle on the left to know who holds the leadership of this new alliance. And the question of the role of those “purged” from LFI, the former rebels like Alexis Corbière or Danielle Simonnet, will also quickly come back to disrupt the future of the coalition.
In the meantime, the left played the unity card on Sunday evening with a meeting at Place de la République in Paris, where Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier and Jean-Luc Mélenchon shared the stage.
