Decryption with the combined perspective of five experts: Carole Grimaud (founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe research in Geneva), General Trinquand (former head of the French military mission to the UN), General Pellistrandi (Editor-in-chief of the magazine Défense nationale), Cyrille Bret (associated researcher at the Institut Montaigne, teacher at Sciences Po Paris) and Serhii Plokhy, head of the chair of Ukrainian history and the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard .
Volodymyr Zelensky will speak this Tuesday, November 19, in front of the European Parliament, from kyiv, to mark 1,000 days of Ukraine's war against the Russian invader.
A conflict which has left several hundred thousand dead and injured, thrown more than 6 million people onto the roads and upset the military, economic and geopolitical balances across the world.
What are the perspectives, redrawn by the return of Donald Trump? Decryption with the combined view of five experts.
What balance of power?
“1,000 days of war led to Russia's occupation of about a fifth of Ukrainian territory,” observes Cyrille Bret, associate researcher at the Institut Montaigne, teacher at Sciences Po Paris.
“The advantage goes to Russia, but at a terrible human cost,” notes Montpellier academic Carole Grimaud, founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe research in Geneva, author of the book “Students facing the Russian war in Ukraine, perception and interpretation of information” (L'Harmattan).
“In two months, to conquer 120 km², or twice the Territory of Belfort, the Russians lost 80,000 men, it's completely crazy! It's a conflict that is both extremely long and of very high intensity, to which we no longer used to it”measures General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine.
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“Even if Russia loses a lot of men, it calls on external reinforcements (North Korea, militias, etc.) which allow it to have a surplus wherever it attacks. Moscow has been concentrating its resources on the Donbass for several months, and, recently, it seems able to commit 50,000 men to try to reconquer the Kursk pocket and launch an offensive in the Zaporizhia region.analyzes General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, author of What Expects Us (Robert-Laffont).
It is in this context, to respond, in particular, to the deployment of North Korean soldiers, that Washington finally gave authorization, on Sunday, to the Ukrainians to use ATACMS long-range weapons to strike Russia.
According to Carole Grimaud, this green light will not reverse the balance of power. But it can allow kyiv “to resist on the 1,000 km² of occupied Russian soil or to target the Kerc bridge. It also opens the possibility of delivering the equivalent long-range Franco-British version Storm Shadow,” she notes. .
Ukraine needs this “fewer restrictions on weapons to hold out. Without this, the Russians could take control of all of Donbass and begin advancing towards the Dnieper River, threatening Ukraine's main cities, including Dnieper and Zaporizhia”underlines Serhii Plokhy, head of the chair of Ukrainian history and the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard, author of The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History (Gallimard).
And to warn: “The Russians are on the offensive on all fronts, threatening major advances in the coming months.”
What prospects?
“The situation benefits the invader in the long term: its positions become more and more difficult to take, its occupation becomes established over time and possible peace negotiations will only begin on this accomplished fact”explains Cyrille Bret.
“It is therefore likely that Russia will seek to gain as much ground as possible between now and January 20, the date President Trump takes office,” comments General Trinquand.
Consolidated News Photos – Allison Robbert – Pool via CNP
“Trump has promised to end the war within 24 hours. He may indeed begin a negotiation process in the near future, but the war will only end when Russia has a chance to continue its advance and Ukraine will be unable to hold the line”estimates Serhii Plokhy, at Harvard.
“For Moscow, intensifying drone attacks on Ukraine or attacks on energy infrastructure marks the desire to display its superiority on the ground and its determination to assert its preconditions for any negotiations,” analyzes Carole Grimaud.
Which diplomatic route?
Donald Trump's plan is to “to move the United States from the status of supporter of Ukraine to that of mediator. And its main lever of action announced is the reduction of considerable American military support for Ukraine ($60 billion since 2022)summarizes Cyrille Bret. Europe can produce very substantial support, but for the moment, its defense effort does not allow it to replace the United States.”
Besides, “if in words and intentions, support for Ukraine remains unwavering, in reality, European countries are struggling to follow and are divided in their aid strategies, constrained by their internal politics: Germany, the main supplier of Ukraine, after the United States, took the decision to reduce it. It is a safe bet that Europe, willy-nilly, will return to a diplomatic solution.slips Carole Grimaud.
Volodymyr Zelensky sees his room for maneuver being reduced and therefore announced himself, on Saturday, his objective of silencing the guns through negotiation in 2025.
“Ukraine, which depends on American and European aid, will have no choice. And Russia will have an interest in stopping the fighting to gain time and be able to relaunch its action later”anticipates General Trinquand.
But this negotiation would raise questions. “If Trump accepts the freezing of the current front line, it is a form of capitulation for Ukraine and a complete violation of international law. And this means that others will be able to redraw the borders. We will have to continue to arm Ukraine, because the Russian threat concerns everyone”warns General Pellistrandi.
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