- Author, Gone Vock
- Role, BBC News
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49 minutes wey don pass
United States officials say President Joe Biden don give Ukraine green light to use long range missiles wey Washington give dem to strike deep inside Russia.
Washington bin don dey drag leg bifor as dem refuse to allow Ukrraine do dat kain strike wit US-made ATACMS missiles sake of fear say e go make di war catch fire.
Di major policy reverse dey as Biden dey try round up im remaining two months for office bifor e handover power to Donald Trump, wey im election don cause fear about di future of US support for Kyiv.
Why US allow Ukraine use long-range missiles inside Russia?
Ukraine don dey use di Army Tactical Missile System, wey dem commonly sabi as ATACMS, on Russian targets for di occupied Ukrainian territory for more dan one year.
But US no ever gree make Kyiv use di missiles inside Russia – until now.
Di Lockheed Martin ballistic missiles na some of di most powerful so far wey western kontri don give Ukraine. E fit travel up to 300km (186 miles).
Ukraine bin tok say, not allowing dem to use dat kain weapon inside Russia na like say make dem dey fight while dem tie one of dia hands for back.
Dis change for policy dey come as response to tori say North Korea recently send di troop to support Russia for Kursk border region, wia Ukraine don occupy since August.
Also, Donald Trump return to White House dey raise fear weda US go still support Ukraine for future, and President Biden wan show say im really wan do wetin im fit to help inside di small time wey remain.
Making Ukraine strong militarily – as par how dem tink am – fit give Ukraine power for any peace tok wey dem fit do for future.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky never confam dis move. But im tok on Sunday say: “No be wit mouth dem dey make strikes… di missiles go speak for demsef.”
Which effect di missiles go get for battlefield?
Ukraine go now fit strike targets inside Russia, most likely e go first use am around di Kursk region, wia Ukraine forces dey hold over 1,000 sq km of territory.
Ukraine and US officials dey expect counter-offensive from Russia and North Korean troops to regain territory for Kursk.
Ukraine fit use ATACMS to defend against di assault, targeting Russia positions including military bases, infrastructure and ammunition storage.
The supply of the missiles may not be enough to turn the flow of the war.
Russia don already move military equipment, like jets, to airfields inside inside Russia as e bin dey expect dis kain decision.
But di weapons fit give Ukraine some advantage for dis kain time wey Russian troops dey gain ground for di kontri east and morale low.
“I no tink say e go fit decide anytin,” one Western diplomat for Kyiv tell BBC, as im ask make dem no mention im name sake of how sensitive di mata dey.
“However, na overdue symbolic decision to raise di stakes and demonstrate military support to Ukraine.
“E fit raise di cost of war for Russia.”
Questions also unto how many ammunitions dem go provide, Evelyn Farkas, wey serve as deputy assistant secretary of defence for Obama administration, tok.
“Di question of course na, how many missiles dem get? We don hear say Pentagon don draw ear say dem no get many of dis missiles wey dem fit make available to Ukraine.”
Farkas add say ATACMS fit get “positive psychological impact” for Ukraine if dem use am strike target like di Kerch Bridge, wey link Crimea to mainland Russia.
Dis permission wey US give go also get more knock-on effect: potentially making UK and France to give Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia.
Storm Shadow na one French-British longe-range cruise missile wey get similar power to di America ATACMS.
E fit escalation di was?
For months, Biden administration no gree give Ukraine permission to hit Russia wih long-range missiles, sake of fear of escalation of di conflict.
Vladimir Putin don warn against allowing Western weapons to hit Russia, saying Moscow go see am as “direct participation” of Nato kontris for di war for Ukraine.
“It would seriously change the very spirit, the nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. “This would mean that Nato countries, the USA and European states, are at war with Russia.”
Russia don set “red lines” before. Dem don cross some of dem since, including providing modern battle tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine, without causing any direct war between Russia and Nato.
Kurt Volker, one former US ambassador to Nato, say: “By restricting di range of Ukraine use of American weapons, US bin unjustifiably impose unilateral restrictions on Ukraine self-defence.”
Im add say di decision to limit di use of di ATACMS bin dey “completely arbitrary and dem do am out of fear of provoking Russia.”
“However, na mistake dat kain change public, as e don give Russia advance notice of potential Ukraine strikes.”
How Donald Trump go react?
Di move dey come just two months before Donald Trump return White House.
Im don already tok say im wan bring di war for Ukraine to swift end – without saying exactly how im plan to do am – and im fit cancel di use of di missiles once im enta office.
President-elect Trump never still tok wed aim go continue di policy, but some of im closest supporters don already criticise am.
Donald Trump Jr, Trump son, write for social media: “Di military industrial complex be like dem wan make sure say dem begin World War Three before my papa get chance to create peace and save lives.”
Many of Trump top officials, like Vice President-elect JD Vance, say make US no provide any more military aid to Ukraine.
But odas for di next Trump administration get different view.
National Security Adviser Michael Waltz don argue say US fit quickly deliver weapons to Ukraine to force Russia to negotiate.
Which way di president-elect go go no deu clear.
But many for Ukraine dey fear say dem go cut off weapons deliveries, including ATACMS.
“We dey worried. We hope say [Trump] no go reverse [di decision],” Oleksiy Goncharenko, one Ukraine Member of Parliament, tell BBC.
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