Will there be a budget at Christmas? The hypothesis of a motion of censure which would bring down the Barnier government in the coming weeks and leave France without a budget for 2025 is starting to be taken very seriously.
Witness the thrill on Monday on the financial markets. International investors remain there, and the Treasury raised 8.3 billion euros without drama in the afternoon. But, faced with political turbulence, banks are now demanding higher interest rates for lending money to the French state. The gap between the rates requested from France and Germany for a ten-year loan rose during the session to 0.83%, its highest level since mid-June. It was only 0.5% before the dissolution of the National Assembly. France must now pay more than Portugal or Spain to obtain funds, and is approaching the level imposed on Greece and Italy.
“We are taking the risk of a Greek scenario”warned government spokesperson Maud Bregeon on Sunday, November 24 in The Parisian, by highlighting the risk of a financial crisis, as in Greece in the early 2010s. The result is one question: “Who wants to give the French as a Christmas present for 2025 a deficit of more than 7% and interest rates that are soaring? »
“A leap into the unknown”
You must not give in “to the little music consisting of saying: “If this budget is ever refused, if there is censorship, it will be dramatic, it will be chaos, etc.” “, replied Marine Le Pen on Monday, leaving her meeting with Michel Barnier in Matignon. A way to clear the ground before possible censorship of the executive by the left and the National Rally (RN). A strong supporter of the motion of censure, Eric Coquerel also wants to be reassuring: even if no budget is adopted, there will be no “no shutdown, no chaos, no disaster”, affirms the president (La France insoumise, LFI) of the finance committee at the Assembly, in a video broadcast on Sunday.
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Chaos or not chaos? The outcome will depend in part on the timing of any censorship. Between now and Christmas, Michel Barnier's opponents will in principle have several opportunities to bring down his government. Three budgetary texts, currently being examined in the Senate, will in fact then return to the Assembly, where the government will undoubtedly try to have them adopted by calling into question its existence within the framework of article 49.3 of the Constitution. First the Social Security budget for 2025, on December 4. Then the end of management bill of 2024, two days later. The general budget for 2025, finally, around December 20.
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