the global economic world is waiting for the president on edge

ECONOMY – The global economic elites are holding their breath. Participants at the Davos Forum are impatiently awaiting Donald Trump's speech this Thursday, January 23. The American president, elected on a rather aggressive protectionist program, must speak by videoconference, less than a week after the start of his mandate.

A perspective that Ursula von der Leyen clearly had in mind when she spoke on site last Tuesday. “We will be pragmatic” towards the Trump administration, “but we will not give up our principles” and we will ensure “protect our interests”warned the President of the European Commission, who also called for more ” cooperation “ international. An outstretched hand to the Chinese Vice-Prime Minister who did not respond directly, but also defended the « dialogue »believing that “trade wars have no winner”.

It must be said that the American president did not waste time. In barely three days he has multiplied decrees and shocking declarations, affirming last Tuesday that the EU is “very bad” for the United States. “They don’t take our cars or our agricultural products” SO “they are good for customs duties”he threatened to the press, specifying that his administration was discussing “10% customs duties on Chinese products”.

Markets calmer than expected

These announcements awaited with apprehension are ultimately quite vague, without timetable or concrete elements. Enough to reassure the markets according to financial analyst Xavier Chapard, interviewed by AFP, who points out “the absence of big surprises, immediate customs duties and the rather measured tone on China”. The Trump administration could actually opt for a less aggressive approach and seek to negotiate with economic partners.

In any case, this is what the European markets seem to have understood, which were moving higher on Wednesday. Beyond the comments on customs duties, Donald Trump also made tempting promises for the artificial intelligence sector with investments of“at least $500 billion”. A fan of tax cuts and deregulation, the American president could even make some people want to “pop the champagne corks”taunts Politico.

Economic circles could be worried about the consequences of Donald Trump's return on the climate, but the subject risks being relegated to the background for another year, predicts New York Times. Questioned by the American daily, former Democratic Vice-President Al Gore promised to “do your best” to put these questions on the table, while remembering that most of the guests at Davos have their eyes focused on the rest of the American president's decisions, particularly on AI and geopolitics.

Trump's shadow still looms over the geopolitical terrain

International conflicts are the real black spot of Trumpist politics in the eyes of economic and political elites. In a report published before the start of meetings in Davos, the World Economic Forum recalled that decision-makers are “anxious about geopolitical tensions”. “Almost a quarter” of the 11,000 business leaders questioned by the survey “placed armed conflicts at the top of the list of dangers over a two-year horizon”.

An observation shared by financier Anthony Scaramucci, interviewed by Politico : “At first glance, Trump is good news for business”more “If you tell me that he is going to seize Greenland, deploy troops in Panama or annex Canada, that creates instability”. The foreign policy of this new mandate of the Republican could have “negative consequences” Also “on the markets”. One more reason to motivate the economic world to carefully follow the declaration of the new American president this Thursday.

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