Sick of NJ’s frigid weather yet? There’s good news and bad news

The Bottom Line

Hello, fellow arctic explorers. I am sure your heavy winter gear has been getting some good use this week, and your furnace is running on overdrive. I think most New Jerseyans are ready to kick these frigid temperatures to the curb at this point.

The good news? Wednesday is the bottom of the barrel, with temperatures moderating through the rest of the week.

The bad news? The warmup is only slight, and short-lived. Long-range forecasts suggest generally below-normal temperatures will grip New Jersey through the rest of January into early February.

Let’s all bundle up and gather around for the latest details on this cold, dry, wintry forecast.

Wednesday

To the north and west, we have perfect radiational cooling conditions on this Wednesday morning. That means clear skies, calm winds, dry air, and snow cover. It is a couple degrees colder than Tuesday morning, believe it or not. The coldest I’ve seen: -15 degrees at Walpack, Sussex County. Subzero temps have been observed as far south as Hunterdon and Somerset counties.

Meanwhile, to the south and east, we still have a blanket of clouds overhead following Tuesday night’s slight snow. So temperatures on this Wednesday morning are similar to Tuesday morning’s, as “warm” as 16 degrees.

Those coastal clouds will depart by Noon, and the rest of Wednesday’s forecast contains plenty of sunshine.

However, we stay in the “extreme cold” category for one more day. Highs will only reach the upper teens to around 20 degrees.

If this were Caribou, Maine or Duluth, Minnesota, teens would be totally typical for this time of year. But here in New Jersey, we are still running 20+ degrees below normal.

Hopefully the wind stays light, so the cold air only has a little “bite” to it. The Cold Air Advisory is still in effect for most of New Jersey, but only until Noon.

Wednesday night will be partly cloudy. And cold. Look for lows around 10 degrees. (Whether or not we see widespread single digits again will depend on how thick the cloud cover gets.)

Thursday

A little bit better. A little bit warmer.

Highs on Thursday will reach into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Still below freezing and well below seasonal averages. But I think you will feel a big difference.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds along with light winds Thursday.

Friday & Saturday

I am lumping these two days together, because the forecast is practically identical. Sunny skies, with high temps around the freezing mark in the lower 30s.

Sunday

On Sunday, we have a shot at hitting 40 degrees, at least in the southern half of the state. That would be our first seasonable, near-normal day since last Saturday. While clouds will increase markedly throughout the day, Sunday’s forecast does look dry and calm.

The Extended Forecast

We have a good shot at 40s again on Monday and possibly Tuesday. The GFS model has consistently shown a minor storm system breezing past New Jersey on Monday, delivering some snow showers with light accumulations. The Euro shows nothing at all. So the chance is worth mentioning, but there’s really not much else to say at this point.

As we turn the calendar page from January to February next week, temperatures will probably nosedive again. The long-range forecast generally looks pretty cold. (And by that, I mean below the normal high temperature benchmark around 40 degrees.)

There are no substantial snow or rain storms on the horizon for us, which is not great news. We are still in drought. And season-to-date snowfall is running behind normal for all but far northwestern New Jersey.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.