Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s fourth-round action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Aryna Sabalenka beat Mirra Andreeva 2-0 at 5/6 (General)
1pt Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Donna Vekic at 11/10 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Aryna Sabalenka v Mirra Andreeva
The fourth round starts on Sunday and so we’re down to four matches from each singles draw.
Frankly, I’m struggling for angles on the men’s side of things.
Jiri Lehecka has the potential to trouble Novak Djokovic but I tried taking the Serb on with Tomas Machac the other day and am still nursing the wound.
I was tempted to get with Ugo Humbert in some shape or form against Alex Zverev but the Frenchman was crushed in their most recent match, in Paris at the end of last season, and with the second seed yet to put a foot wrong in Melbourne, I’m instead off to the women’s draw.
In this match, I’m expecting Sabalenka to prove much too good.
Like Zverev, she’s done little wrong across the first three rounds – the two-time defending champion is yet to drop a set.
In contrast, Andreeva has struggled through her last two matches, needing three sets to beat both Moyuka Uchijima and Magdalena Frech.
Sabalenka’s greater power should be a big factor here. It has been in the past with the Belarusian 3-1 up on the head-to-head.
All three of her victories have come in straight sets, including a 6-3 6-2 victory in Brisbane only a couple of weeks ago.
Andreeva will aim to take something from the fact that she upset Sabalenka at Roland Garros last summer but that match was played on clay and, most importantly, on a day when Sabalenka was clearly struggling with illness.
In short, I reckon a straight-sets win at 5/6 looks a decent play.
-Donna Vekic v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Pavlyuchenkova is a player who probably doesn’t get the respect she deserves.
She first secured a year-end top-50 finish in 2008 and, but for a serious injury in 2022, would probably have repeated the trick every year since.
Now 33, Pavlyuchenkova will be seeking her ninth Grand Slam quarter-final – and fourth at the Australian Open – in this match, and it’s one she can win.
I know I can rely on head-to-head records a little too much sometimes but here the two previous matches look especially relevant.
Both have been played in the last 18 months and both were contested on hardcourts.
On each occasion, Pavlyuchenkova dominated with both won in straight sets. The most recent came right here at Melbourne Park last year when Vekic was beaten 6-4 6-4.
The most notable takeaway from those matches is how Vekic has struggled on her first serve – she’s won just 50% of points played on it. Pavlyuchenkova’s equivalent number is an impressive 83%.
With both players down at 39% of points won behind their second serve, how each deals with the first delivery could well be key. And with temperatures rising above 30C on Sunday afternoon, Pavlyuchenkova’s beefy serve should get that extra ping too – not what Vekic needs.
The Russian held serve throughout her demolition of Laura Siegemund on Friday and if she serves well again here, I’d expect her to triumph.
Posted at 1620 GMT on 18/01/25
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