Who doesn’t love a good upset?
In 2024, MMA saw its fair share of underdogs who defied the odds in the UFC, PFL and beyond. While everyone has an opinion of who should win and who should lose, the oddsmakers (and how the betting public responds) largely get the final say on what history reflects.
This year, with the help of MMA database Tapology, MMA Junkie has compiled the top 10 betting upsets of 2024. Fights that were eligible were those that multiple major online sportsbooks recognized, and that Tapology recorded before the close of the betting line.
Promotions eligible include UFC, PFL, Bellator, KSW, DWCS, Road to UFC, and ONE Championship.
Check out the top 10 MMA betting upsets of 2024 below. Only major MMA promotions were included in the tally.
10
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 24: Danylo Voievodkin of Ukraine reacts after his submission victory against Bailey Schoenfelder in a heavyweight fight during Dana White’s Contender Series season eight, week seven at UFC APEX on September 24, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
9
8
7
“The King” by Omar Kane. Anatoly Malykhin – ONE 169
6
Claudio Pacella def. Mark Ewen – Fight Night during 2024 PFL EUROPE 2: Newcastle at Utilita Arena in Newcastle Upon Tyne, England, Saturday, June 8, 2024. (Jose Peñuela / PFL Europe 2)
Result: Claudio Pacella def. Mark Ewen via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
It was a big year for Italy when it came to MMA upsets. Claudio Pacella proved the so-called experts wrong when he became the first man to defeat Scotland’s Mark Ewen by unanimous decision.
5
Result: Reece McLaren def. Jarred Brooks via split decision
The fifth-biggest MMA upset in 2024 came with just days left in the calendar year when ONE vet Reece McLaren defeated former UFC fighter Jarred Brooks by split decision. McLaren has now won four of his most recent five fights and enters 2025 with a head full of steam.
4
Aiemann Zahabi def. Javid Basharat, UFC Fight Night 23
3
Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes, UFC Fight Night 248 (via UFC)
2
Daniele Miceli def. Ibrahima Mane – Fight Night during 2024 PFL EUROPE 3: Glasgow Fight Night at OVO Hydro in Glasgow, Scotland, Saturday, September 28, 2024 (Jose Peñuela / PFL Europe 3)
Result: Daniele Miceli def. Ibrahima Mane via TKO (ground-and-pound) – Round 1, 1:26
Italy’s Daniel Miceli pulled off the second-biggest upset of 2024 in a matter of 86 seconds when he finished France’s Ibrahima Mane – in Paris. The win projected Miceli into the 2024 PFL Europe welterweight final, where he was submitted by Albania’s Florim Zendeli in Round 1.
1
2024 PFL 1: San Antonio at the Boeing Center at Tech Port in San Antonio, Texas, Thursday, April 4, 2024. (Cooper Neill / PFL)
Result: Dimitre Ivy def. Lucas Brennan via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
The biggest betting upset in major promotional MMA took place in the second PFL fight of the season. On the prelims at 2024 PFL 1, Dimitre Ivy shocked the books when he defeated highly-touted Bellator import Lucas Brennan by unanimous decision. The bout was Brennan’s last under the PFL/Bellator umbrella.
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