Amidst a strong but imperfect season, Bayern Munich hope to keep a strong grip on the Bundesliga title race as they host RB Lepizig in a Friday spotlight from Allianz Arena.
A surprising defeat to Mainz last time out saw their lead at the top of the table cut to four points over last year’s winners Bayer Leverkusen, and while that remains a solid enough advantage for now, a second consecutive match dropping points would surely sound the alarm.
RB Leipzig sit fourth in the Bundesliga table, but have been cataclysmically bad in the Champions League this season. They are eliminated from knockout stage contention with two matches to play, thanks to a big fat zero points through the first six games, indicating the gulf in quality between themselves and the best in Europe.
That puts a bigger importance on Leipzig’s league matches from here on out, knowing their European journey is close to a conclusion.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig prediction, odds
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2024, his three-way moneyline predictions have hit 55% of the time, generating a profit of over 50 units thus far.
- Moneyline lean: Bayern Munich (-300 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Bayern Munich 4-1 RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich have had enormous difficulty with RB Leipzig in recent years, winning just two of their last seven games against today’s opponents across all competitions, with both victories coming by a one-goal margin.
This presents a get-right moment for the Bavarians in a number of ways, both their overall league form and their head-to-head record against Leipzig. The visitors are one of the only German clubs with an equally lengthy injury list to match Bayern’s, and while their recent form has been better, they’ve been repeatedly demolished in the Champions League when matched against opponents of today’s caliber.
Leipzig have the biggest favorable expected goals differential in Bundesliga play this season, with goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi repeatedly called into action (more on that shortly). As their European exploits prove, that’s not a sustainable model.
| BetMGM (USA) | |
| Bayern Munich win | -300 |
| Draw | +475 |
| RB Leipzig win | +725 |
| Both teams to score | Y: -175 N: +120 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | O: -125 U: -110 |
| Bayern Munich -1.5 goals | -135 |
| RB Leipzig +1.5 goals | -110 |
Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig match facts
- Date: Friday, December 20, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. local (2:30 p.m. ET / 11:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
- Last meeting: Bayern Munich 2-1 RB Leipzig (Feb. 24, 2024 | Bundesliga)
MORE: How to watch Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig in Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig best bet
- Pick: Over 3.5 total goals
- Odds: -125 (BetMGM)
Every Bayern Munich game has the potential to be loaded with goals, and usually the market overcompensates and prices out the value. The odds are once again heavily weighted towards a higher goal count today, but it’s worth the play on this occasion.
RB Leipzig have been all-too-often saved by their goalkeeper, who sports the fourth-best post-shot xG differential in the German top flight this year. Yet against the best finishing team in the league, it will take a Herculean effort to keep a lid on Bayern’s attack — that’s exactly what Mainz produced last weekend, and it’s a lot to expect that to happen twice in a row.
Meanwhile, on the other end, Bayern sport the lowest expected goals conceded mark in the league, but their goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been one of the worst in the league. The 37-year-old’s decline has been real and apparent, and RB Leipzig will be primed to contribute to this total. Unfortunately, both teams to score sits at -175, so this is the better value play.
Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig prop bet
Former Crystal Palace standout Michael Olise has thrived at Bayern Munich since joining in the summer. While he suffered through a dry spell after a hot start to life in Germany, he seems to have worked through the kinks and has returned to being a key contributor up front for the Bavarian giants.
Olise has provided his teammates with 11 key passes in his last four league matches, plus three more in two Champions League games sprinkled in. He has three total assists in those six games, and even in games where he fails to set up a goal, he still has proven incisive. In league play this season, his 0.17 xA/shot assist ranks second amongst anyone with 20 or more chances created, meaning only world-class Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz is generating a better combination of volume and quality.
While you can get Olise to score or assist a goal at -135, his main threat is in the creativity department, so the increase in value here is worth the risk of dropping any finishing return.
