Recession, not recession? Since the fall of the Barnier government on December 4, concerns about the French economy have been accumulating. If, at the end of the year, the economy has not slipped into the red, it is on the edge. In fact, activity in the fourth quarter should be sluggish (+ 0%), according to figures published Tuesday December 17 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). This, mainly due to the backlash from the effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris, which boosted gross domestic product (GDP) between July and September. Over the whole of 2024, French growth should stand at 1.1%, a figure identical to that of 2023.
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Given the political and budgetary uncertainty, 2025 does not look promising. For the first six months, the statistical institute forecasts GDP growth of 0.2% per quarter. So that by the summer, the economy will have achieved 0.5% growth − even if the following half-year were to prove completely sluggish, growth over the whole of 2025 will therefore be at least 0.5%. . The Banque de France, which, unlike INSEE, makes forecasts for the full year, forecasts 0.9% growth in 2025 – a figure revised downwards by 0.3% compared to forecasts. published in the fall. A revision that owes a lot “uncertainty at the international level”explains the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with Figaro from December 17. Growth forecasts for the euro zone have also been revised downwards (-0.2%), which does not put France in a particularly worse situation than its neighbors.
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