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- The US Federal Reserve (FED) is lowering its key interest rate for the third time in a row despite slightly increasing inflation.
- This is reduced by 0.25 percentage points and is now in a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
- The central bank of the world’s largest economy also predicted fewer interest rate hikes for the coming year than previously forecast.
The FED’s decision-makers expect an average key interest rate of 3.9 percent for 2025 (September: 3.4 percent). The prediction comes as little surprise. The resilient US economy and the strong labor market give the central bank the necessary leeway to stick to its high interest rate policy for longer. In addition, the inflation rate has recently increased slightly again. Another uncertainty factor is Donald Trump – the Republican will move back into the White House in January.
For the coming year, the central bankers expect an average inflation rate of 2.5 percent – which is higher than previously assumed. In September the forecast for 2025 was 2.1 percent.
Function and influence of the FED
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The classic task of the FED, like other central banks, is to keep inflation under control. In the medium term it aims for one
Inflation rate
from two percent. For the Fed, the fight against high consumer prices is a balancing act: If interest rates are too high, there is a risk of a recession. If interest rates are lowered too early, the inflation rate could rise again.
The
Key interest rate
is the interest rate through which central banks influence the behavior of commercial banks. Because the banks always have to borrow new money. When banks borrow money from the National Bank, they pay interest. That is the key interest rate.
Changes in key interest rates always have a delayed effect. Because it takes a while for the banks to pass on the changed interest rates to customers, to react to the new interest rates for loans and mortgages and for this to have an impact on the economy.
In the summer of 2022, the inflation rate was more than 9 percent. In response to high consumer prices, the Fed raised interest rates at a record-breaking pace.
In September, the US Federal Reserve started the interest rate turnaround with an unusually large step downwards. The key rate was reduced for the first time since the beginning of the decade – by half a percentage point.
SRF 4 News, 18.12.2024, 9 pm;
agencies/flal;mcep
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