Will it snow on Christmas Eve this year?

Will it snow on Christmas? Is there snow on roofs and fir trees on Christmas Eve? These questions always come up during Advent. Every single year. The answer is always the same: the chances are small.

Last year, the Swiss weather service Meteo News ran a live blog in which every three days they analyzed whether the desired white Christmas would work. With each entry, hope faded. In the end it rained in many places. The oracle says for 2024: There is a small hope, but it will probably be too warm.

Where does our longing for a white Christmas come from?

Christmas is usually green in the lowlands

According to Meteo News, Christmas is considered white if there is at least one centimeter of snow when Meteo Switzerland’s official snow measurement at 7 a.m. on either December 24th, 25th or 26th. It is not enough if the snowfall starts briefly during the day but has disappeared again by the time the measurement is taken, writes Meteo News.

Only one centimeter is necessary. And yet white Christmases rarely happen. Meteo News compared the snow amounts at Christmas from 2001 to 2022. It snowed most often in St. Gallen, twelve times in 21 years. In Bern and Zurich there was a white Christmas in 6 out of 21 years. In Aarau and Basel only three times.

Why do we still expect there to be snow at Christmas?

Because Christmas used to be often white. Due to climate change, there used to be more snow and more snow in the winter months than today. The average temperature is rising, and with it the snow line. Snow measurements at Christmas show: Between 2001 and 2011 there were more white Christmases than afterwards. In weather conditions where there used to be just enough snow, it now rains more often.

But climate change alone does not explain why we believe that Christmases used to be white as a matter of course.

Every generation before had the same misconception. And before that. And before that. Regular white Christmases are a cross-generational childhood memory. But she is deceiving.

The older people say that as children they were able to build igloos and have snowball fights on Christmas Eve. Even before 2001, white Christmases were the exception. From 1931 to 1993, there was snow at Christmas in less than 40 percent of the years in the central and eastern Swiss plateau. In western and northwestern Switzerland, 25 percent of Christmas days were white.

And weather records from the Natural Research Society of Lucerne for the years 1911 to 1914 say: “Real winter cold and the dominance of snow have become almost unknown things in the Christmas month for several years. No Christmas poem that talks about cold, snow and ice would fit more.”

It’s not just the Swiss who have memories of supposedly snowier Christmases. In the world-famous song “White Christmas” from 1942, Bing Crosby sings: “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.” In German: I dream of a white Christmas, like the ones I used to know.

Green image of Christmas

In the 1990s, Swiss climate researcher Martine Rebetez tried to find out why we expect a white Christmas every year. In her research she came across Christmas greeting cards from Great Britain from the 19th century. The oldest discovered Christmas card from 1843 still shows green areas, but from 1850 onwards the first cards with snow-covered house roofs appeared.

Rebetez suspects that the artists were inspired by their trips to the Alps. Or from maps they received from American emigrants who had moved to snowy areas in New England. Christmas illustrations with snow became standard across the UK. Even in Australia, cards with snow motifs are sent, even though it is summer there at Christmas.

Since then, snow and Christmas have always belonged together. There is hardly a Christmas song without a mention of snow. “White Christmas”, “Let it Snow”, “The snow is falling quietly”. In Christmas films and children’s books, Santa Claus comes flying from the North Pole with reindeer and sleigh. Every Christmas on television you can see Cinderella and the prince riding horses through a snowy landscape. And in Coca-Cola’s latest ad, the famous red truck drives through an AI-generated winter wonderland.

The image is captivating. Also because we especially hope for snow during the Christmas season. With the snow, calm falls over cities and villages. Hectic life slows down. Snow fulfills a longing.

Music, film and advertising reinforce the idea that snow is normal at Christmas. Snow is now just as much a part of the image of a heartwarming, joyful and contemplative Christmas as Christmas trees, lights and presents. This is probably why we think we remember earlier white Christmases.