Investments: what are the tops and flops of 2024?

A safe haven par excellence, gold has perfectly benefited from investors' fears regarding the global geopolitical situation (armed conflicts, American presidential election, etc.). From just over $2,070 at the end of last year, an ounce climbed to $2,750 recently, gaining some 33% at its highest.

The yellow metal also benefits from strong Chinese and Indian demand, mainly for jewelry and especially from purchases by central banks, keen to diversify their reserves. Supporting factors which increase its scarcity in the face of limited reserves.

Gold, on the other hand, has a disadvantage, that of offering no return, unlike, for example, bonds.

Rare are the assets whose value has multiplied by 2.5 during the year. In any case, this is what Bitcoin did in 2024, with a sudden surge following the election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has not hidden his sympathy for cryptocurrency nor his desire to promote it. Which had the consequence of propelling Bitcoin to more than 105,000 dollars.

Despite everything, we remain reserved about this outbreak of fever. Since the use of Bitcoin is not imperative in any country or area, its fundamentals do not seem more solid to us than those of tulip bulbs in another era.

Perhaps it will continue to rise in 2025, supported by buyers fearing missing out on a good deal. But we should also not rule out the possibility of a fall as brutal as the recent rise.

+27% on the S&P 500 and +33% on the Nasdaq… American markets are on track to complete an exceptional year, supported by technology stocks, resilient consumption and the Fed's monetary policy. At the end of the year, the grand slam achieved by Donald Trump (presidency, senate, house of representatives) also avoided a period of political uncertainty for the markets.

With the resumption of investments, put on hold at the start of 2024, the year 2025 could be less dynamic in terms of results.

However, in the short term, markets could still benefit from a Trump effect given his rather favorable positions on businesses and domestic consumption.

Political uncertainty and the scale of the debt weighed on the French economy throughout the year.

As a result, the CAC 40 has shown a slight decline since the start of 2024, far from the 16.5% gained the previous year.

On the sidelines of a luxury sector which has held up better, property prices have fallen again in 2024. The decline is expected to be around 2% in mainland France and even 4% in Paris and the outskirts.

Beyond these developments, it is also and above all the sharp slowdown in the market which penalized sellers, some having difficulty finding buyers.

The recent drop in rates is a factor that could encourage a little more optimism, but the lack of fiscal visibility also risks slowing down the recovery.

The results are clearly mixed for SCPIs. On the one hand, yields are holding up with an average market-wide projection of 4.5% for the year.

However, this will partly be the consequence of falls in the price of certain shares (with a direct negative impact on investors' assets). Without forgetting that some SCPIs are struggling today to satisfy exit requests.

In summary, the SCPI market is split in two, with the resistance of a few heavyweights masking the proven difficulties of companies positioned in more difficult segments.

With a rate of 3%, the booklet did not make any sparks. But, faced with average inflation of 2% over the year, it played its role perfectly as a precautionary savings vehicle. Much more in any case than most ordinary booklets which also have the disadvantage of being taxed.

In summary, capital placed in a Livret A in 2024 was protected from monetary erosion and even gained 1% in purchasing power. With inflation slowing, the trend is expected to continue in 2025, even with the expected drop in the passbook rate to 2.5%.

This year, euro funds from life insurance contracts should achieve an average performance of 2.5%, or 2.07% net of social security contributions taken at source. The performance will therefore be a shade below that of 2023 and policyholders may regret the scores of the early 2010s when net returns fluctuated between 2.5% and 3%.

However, we must not forget to compare returns to inflation. As the rise in prices has calmed down significantly in 2024 (2% inflation after 4.9% in 2023), the real return on life insurance in euros will be slightly positive, putting an end to three consecutive years of monetary erosion. .

In summary, savers will not have made any money with their euro funds in 2024. But they will not have lost any, unlike in previous years. Finally, note that with yields that could be maintained and inflation expected to fall (1.8%), euro funds should also remain in the green in 2025.