Retailleau reappointed under Bayrou? The minister's case symbolizes the difficulty of the equation to solve

POLITICS – Bruno in Beauvau, season 2? While François Bayrou continues his cycle of consultations in Matignon this Tuesday, December 16 to name his future government and find the conditions for stability in the National Assembly, Bruno Retailleau, the resigning Minister of the Interior, is attracting attention.

He is one of the rare personalities to have emerged in the team led by Michel Barnier over the last three months. His various offensives, against drug trafficking or immigration, have marked public debate and opinion, even when he crossed the yellow line by calling into question the rule of law. A sign of this new political depth: François Bayrou received him first, Friday evening, a few minutes after his arrival at Rue de Varenne.

The Prime Minister immediately entrusted him with the management of the crisis in Mayotte after the devastating passage of Cyclone Chido and the specter of a tragic human toll in the archipelago. Bruno Retailleau arrived on site Monday, December 15, as a resigning minister. Will he be a full minister upon his return to France? His case sums up the difficult equation facing François Bayrou.

Retailleau wants to stay, under conditions

It's no secret, Bruno Retailleau wants to stay in his job. Many of his relatives and supporters are pleading in this direction. “ He appeared to be the strong man of this government, and the French are not mistaken. enthuses, for example, the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher in an interview with La Tribune Sundayby demanding “that he be returned to the Ministry of the Interior. » Even Emmanuel Macron would have advised his new Prime Minister to keep him in his team.

In the current context, the Vendéen has several assets up its sleeve. He holds, in particular, the key to the Republicans' support for the François Bayrou adventure in Matignon, as several executives suggest, notably in the Senate, where he chaired the LR group for ten years. “ If the Prime Minister gives him the means to continue his political action to stay in Beauvau, I think that this will lead to our presence in the future government team », summarized the senator from Haute-Saône Alain Joyandet, Monday in the columns of Monde. Yes, but at what cost?

These supports, 130 senators and 47 deputies, are almost fundamental for a Prime Minister in search of stability. The compensation requested in exchange for this support will therefore be significant. In this sense, Bruno Retailleau has already asked “ guarantees » to François Bayrou to be kept in his position, namely “ be confirmed in the roadmap that was his » under Michel Barnier, in particular on the fight against immigration, legal or not.

And « the events of war » for the left

This is where things get complicated for the new host of Matignon. The concessions he must make to the right, notably Bruno Retailleau, may compromise the “non-censorship” pact that part of the left is proposing to him to establish. This pact which would ensure the stability that Michel Barnier lacked a few weeks earlier.

This is also arithmetic. With 66 deputies, the socialist group – the most open to negotiations – can give François Bayrou a breath of fresh air if he decides not to censor the government. Thus, the centrist would no longer be at the mercy of mood swings and the threat of the National Rally. But this benevolence is far from being acquired.

On the contrary, the left speaks of “ the events of war » if Bruno Retailleau is reappointed at Place Beauvau, and with him his very conservative line. “ He is the one who fought against the rule of law (…) If he does not deny himself, it will be front to front “, for example warned Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the PS on Sunday on France 3, about the man whose appointment had caused a stir even in the macronie. Like him, Marine Tondelier, the national secretary of environmentalists spoke of “ a priori » of censorship in recent days by pointing the finger at the profile « not soothing » from the Vendéen.

Is a compromise possible?

Basically, the Greens or the Pinks warn that they will not accept a new immigration law, even less to take up the proposals of the previous text on the subject, pushed in December 2023 by LR senators (including Bruno Retailleau at the era) but rejected by the Constitutional Council. Enough to maintain the headaches in Matignon. And already obscure the future of François Bayrou?

The path to agreeing with all these beautiful people, (at different levels, LR for participation, the left for an agreement of “ non-censorship “), seems in these conditions very difficult to find. Except to consider some concessions to clear a first landing strip between these contradictory injunctions.

In this context, it is not insignificant to see Bruno Retailleau's entourage indicate to the press that the minister, who has resigned, is not necessarily stuck to a new text on immigration. What he had nevertheless advocated, and obtained, with Michel Barnier. “ In terms of means, everything is possible, as long as the direction and ambition remain the same”we know.

Despite everything, it will take much more to coax the left, but also part of the presidential camp. “ The abolition of AME (State Medical Aid) was a no three months ago, it remains a no today “, assures us, for example, an executive from the group led by Gabriel Attal, rather confident about the future of events and the ability of the Republicans to scale back to stay in government. The next episodes will tell.

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