the essential
Constitutionalist Benjamin Morel discusses the future government of François Bayrou and the difficult search for a majority in the National Assembly. Interview.
La Dépêche du Midi: Can François Bayrou form a government with personalities?
Benjamin Morel: That seems to be his desire: to bring in leading personalities. But if Bayrou wants to do like Barnier, that is to say play public opinion against parliament, it looks complicated. To broaden the common base, we would have to find left-wing personalities but it is not sure that LR will agree to lose the weight that it has today. The risk would be to only have a Macronist government. This would weaken the government by giving the impression of continuity that is poorly perceived by public opinion.
Will Bruno Retailleau be part of this government casting?
This is a strategic dilemma for François Bayrou. If Bruno Retailleau is not there, the Republicans risk leaving the common base. But the name of Retailleau is also a scarecrow for the left. If he is in the government, the socialists will vote for censorship, especially since the pressure from the rebels will be very strong.
POOL – STEPHANE DE SHAKUTIN
Can he escape censorship on the budget?
The new Prime Minister faces several difficulties. If it uses 49.3, the RN has no interest in censoring it because it is in a process of standardization and wants to give the image of a reasonable party. But if the budget passes thanks to the RN, it will be for Bayrou a return to the Barnier box after having wanted to emancipate himself. This budget can also pass with a positive vote from LR and the left excluding Insoumis. But we do not see how such a budget can bring together such a majority. In reality, no one has an interest in France not having a budget. If we don't have it on December 31, it's not a disaster, but if we're at the same point in three months, it won't be the same thing.
What attitude can the National Rally adopt in the coming weeks?
Either Bayrou fails to broaden the common base, the RN will once again be in the role of arbiter. Either Bayrou reaches a non-censorship agreement with the PS, the RN will be able to denounce an austerity budget and present itself as the only alternative for the next elections.
After the failed dissolution, the fall of Barnier then the hesitation to appoint Bayrou, Macron seems increasingly weakened.
A Prime Minister who imposes himself on the President is a first in the Fifth Republic. And I don't think this happened under the Fourth or Third Republic. Even in the case of Clémenceau with Poincaré. In history, it is rather the opposite, a President who imposes his choice. This demonstrates the extreme weakness of Emmanuel Macron who hoped to regain control. But this also illustrates Bayrou's flaws. I see three: it relies on a coalition that is too heterogeneous with several political groups. He wants to be President of the Republic but relies on presidential candidates: Philippe, Attal, Wauquiez. If Bayrou fails, he won't hurt anyone, but if this government succeeds, he will become a problem. Finally, his third weakness is the risk of hostility from the person who appointed him. Macron will try to keep control and will not want to have the pace of the end of his five-year term dictated to him. Bayrou is almost a Prime Minister of cohabitation, except that in cohabitation, the Prime Minister relies on a majority which does not exist today.
Is a new dissolution inevitable?
If there is too much instability, it is likely even if no one really has an interest in it. The RN can win but if it wins Matignon, it risks losing the presidential election. That would be shooting yourself in the foot. The left will have difficulty creating unity. As for the Macronists, they owe their election largely to the transfer of votes from the left to the second round. Apart from the rebels, a dissolution would not suit anyone.
